Ree81
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Self-explanatory. It's already out of date, but it shows the massive spike in temperature that started happening ~150 years ago (most of which in the last 40 years, that little bump is WW2.)
AMOC collapse is "pretty likely by 2030-2050". It would cause all of Europe to basically collapse. Temperatures would 'concentrate' in a band across central Europe. France would be "okay", but hundreds of millions would likely die. No worries.
"EEI", Earth Energy Imbalance, is a fairly new concept for commoners like me. But it shows the reason for the massive bump in "energy the earth got from the sun" we got the past ~1.5 years. Something "broke" in how the globe absorbed radiation from the sun in 2023. Likely "IMO2020", cleaner shipping fuel that were causing massive amounts of clouds (cooling effect) over the world's oceans. We had been hiding a BUNCH of warming up until then, and... here it is.
This is how much fossil fuels we extract from faaaar under the ground each year now. Oh, and it's still increasing. I actually have a sort of "metaphor" for this pic.
If the atmosphere had the same pressure as at sea level (us) all the way up, it would only be 8km tall (5 miles). Normally the air gets thinner the higher you go, but not in this metaphor.
In this image you see Burj Khalifa, which is 800m tall (0.5 miles). So the atmosphere is practically just 10 times higher than that building! As we pump up CO2 (and other planet heating gases), it just... fills up. It doesn't "go" anywhere. It just spreads out across this incredibly thin layer of gas we call the atmosphere on this planet.
Right, this is the IMO2020 stuff I talked about, so brand new science! The red represents the places we *WERE* creating clouds using the dirty shipping fuel, that was used in all the world's cargo ships. Oh, and that dirty fuel is sulfur. Incredibly bad for human health (which is why we regulated it).
Those clouds are now mostly gone, and because of that, ocean temperatures have spiked, revealing the real global warming we had caused. Oh, and hurricane Beryl was likely a consequence of this.
More than 1000 dead in the pilgrimage to Mecka earlier this year, due to record heat.
Some basics (skip if you know how CO2 works).
On the surface of the planet, there's always been a relatively stable amount of carbon "available". The carbon moves around in the "carbon cycle", so from the air, to the oceans, to all the vegetation on land, in a cycle that keeps repeating.
But once you start messing with fossil fuels, ancient *BURIED* sources of oil, coal and gas, we eventually (like 200 years ago) realized that those carbon sources hadn't been part of the surface of the planet for likely hundreds of millions of years. And suddenly we're "shocking" the planet with extra carbon that just wasn't there before.
Remember those huge cubes? We burn those each year, and turn them into giant clouds of CO2 (carbon dioxide), using the atmosphere as a dump for our pollution. And since CO2 just builds up in the atmosphere, it obviously has effects on global warming, and the climate (the sum of all weather).
The world will keep heating up as long as we use fossil fuels for our machines. Cars, trucks, planes, coal and gas plants, the works. Nobody thinks it'll be an easy change to make, but the alternative, NOT changing, will absolutely lead us to doom as crops start failing on a global scale, unable to feed 8.1 billion people.
We're hurting the animal kingdom with our way of life.
Ah, in Swedish, but I'll explain. It shows the emissions of various countries. "India, "All other countries", USA, China. But the rightmost one shows "All countries with less than 2% of the total emissions", adding up to a whopping 40% of all emissions. It's showing that small countries definitely have their fair share of the blame here. In the end it's behavior that matters, not country size.
If you have a shopping mall and cars near you, your country *is* part of the problem.
Just a heatwave on the south pole causing apocalyptic heat there, nothing to worry about I'm sure............ Unless you care about the "doomsday glacier", Thwaites, about to slide into the ocean and raise sea levels by several feet, wiping out many, many cities. But hey, that's at least 20 (!!) years into the future! "Yawn" am I right?
Oh right, the north pole! So, the north pole, the Arctic, is just ice that's floating on the ocean there. There's no *land* under the ice like on the south pole (Antarctic).
Funny story. Antarctic means "no polar bears here". So if you ever mix them up, just think "anti polar bears".
Anyway, remember how I said clouds cooled the planet, and that we got rid of a bunch of clouds over the oceans recently, causing a spike.....? Ringing any bells? Well, anything "white" on the planet actually cools us, a lot. So it's bad news when "white stuff" disappears.
Yeah, the north pole is about to completely melt, as it's just a thin layer of ever melting ice right now. Most of it is less than 1 meter thick (4 feet), and it could go within 10 years, causing *yet another spike* in global temperature. And I'm thinking it'll be a BIG one.
Yesterday, this scientist figured out that we've practically doubled the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, if you account for other powerful gases we're also responsible for (methane and nitrous oxide). If you just count CO2, it's "just" 50% more.
It's bad.
Whatever hope you have, at least realize that we've made our bed, and it's very soon time to lay in it.
It's so bad.
al3xinw0nderland0000
#1 from numbers alone regardless of their meaning, it's mindbending that adding the last 5 years SIGNIFICANTLY increases the slope of that doom spike from, uh, doom spike levels. It's been the hottest year on record every year for years now.
StrandedonEarth
But yet, drill baby, drillllllll!!!!!
allnamestakenzzz
Big oil and Big coal “No you see that’s all wrong, it’s nothing to worry about we solved the issue once and for all :D”
But…
ONCE AND FOR ALL!
Djkb6718
I hate how powerless and trapped this makes me feel. Fuck profits, save the biosphere.
Ree81
Hang on until the climate catastrophes that kill unimaginable numbers start hitting monthly. That's apparently what needs to happen to get our shit together.
I think we'll see a lot of new parties pop up, and new types of 'disaster politicians' that realize it's just not sustainable to do anything but pour all our resources to saving as many as possible...... or we'll just collapse, and spiral into endless wars.
TheGhostofElizabethShue
Jesus, 560? That’s.. gone up a lot since I last looked.
TheGhostofElizabethShue
here’s one I shared a few years ago that only went to 2018, just over 400ppm. It’s going up *so fast*, like tipping point fast.
Ree81
Actual CO2 is at around 425 ppm. But it's become apparent that it's not the "real" way of counting things since we have other gases warming too. A few scientists are trying to break the status quo (even if barely anyone cares...).
TheGhostofElizabethShue
Ohhh, I get it. Still scary af.
Ree81
Actual CO2 is at around 425 ppm. But it's become apparent that it's not the "real" way of counting things since we have other gases warming too. A few scientists are trying to break the status quo (even if barely anyone cares...).
Fyreworx
Won't somebody think of the billionaires profits!
fitgirl1
What is wild, the world leaders just don't seem to have any impetuous to do something. I mean the world did make a wold wide effort to combact covid. And that actually gave me hope, because it literally meant shutting shit down. Now imagine we did that full scale and we change how we live full stop. I remember popping into a shopping mall after covid it felt like a relic from a different time. We really need to evaluate everything that everyone doea
Ree81
Don't mean to brag or anything, but the information shown in this thread is pretty damn new, and fairly hard to compile. Even if you're a politician, reading IPCC conclusions, most of this stuff is just... omitted. We do live in a world where this stuff is suppressed.
Carl99
Those profits will collapse if world population starts to drop significantly. And unmitigated climate change will do that.
StrandedonEarth
Yeah, but they’ll be then. They only care about now.t
lostlittletimeonthis
That's why they are short sightedly building bunkers for themselves believing that if they outlive most of the world they will be fine, forgetting that climate will take hundreds of years to normalize, technology will require maintenance no longer available as well as the whole supply chain that feeds it, and that they will probably just off themselves because they will be kings in a lonely island and that won't do for their massive egos
ServaDoctrina
the multicrisis is why i'm not having kids - there are no adults in charge of this complex and threatening situation
ChewyTheWookie
"iT's jUsT wEaThEr"

US Military documents on their conclusion that climate change is an absolute reality, why they call it "The Climate Crisis" instead of just "Climate Change" and each branch's action plans for addressing it with progress reports.
https://www.defense.gov/spotlights/tackling-the-climate-crisis/
From the Forward of the DoD Climate Risk Analysis:
hnngh
vegangreen
You need to join together with other people. Find/start a local environmental group and/or donate to a bigger one. Go to marches. We can do this, but not on our own.
Vkiwi2
the only silver lining I can see is if you put the gamecube startup sound to these graphs... it kinda works
NaughtButOne
Ree81
*Wheeeeeeze*
digiorno88
We gonna call it the hot age? Fire age? Opposite of ice age
asm80dfa8sdfj
Not gonna matter when we all die
xizar
The surface temperature of the earth has been up to 400 degrees F in the past... this is just a blip.
xizar
(because I have no faith in the Internet's ability to detect satire, this was satirical... I'm aware that 400 is too hot, even for Phoenix.)
wantednokes
*recycles harder*
trippingthelightfantastic
Eschscholtzia
This is exactly that.. I live in one of those 39°c on that image. When i was a kid, which is not even that far, hot summers meant 26-28°c at most. Now we regularly have around 33°c every summer. Some days we reach the 38°c.
OptimusPom
Explain this to an American and a Chinesian in ELI5 terms how the French boiling concerns us? /s
lolzomg123
The cheese and wine imports will be dramatically reduced in quality if they (the products) boil!
Harm
'Different country,same planet.'
TheUnstoppableWampas
They'll boil too?
HisDudness
*Sounds of the British celebrating, even as they also boil.*
iseeyoyos
“So if you hear something in this book that sounds like advocacy of a particular political point of view, please reject the notion. My interest in issues is merely to point out how badly we’re doing, not to suggest a way we might do better.
Don’t confuse me with those who cling to hope. I enjoy describing how things are, I have no interest in how they ought to be. And I certainly have no interest in fixing them. I sincerely believe that if you think there’s a solution, you’re part of the problem
iseeyoyos
My motto: Fuck Hope.
P.S. In case you’re wondering, personally I’m a joyful individual, I had a long happy marriage and a close and loving family, my career has turned out better than I ever dreamed, and it continues to expand. I’m a personal optimist, but a skeptic about all else. What may sound to some like anger, is really nothing more than sympathetic contempt. I view my species with a combination of wonder and pity, and I root for its destruction.
iseeyoyos
And please don’t confuse my point of view with cynicism–the real cynics are the ones who tell you everything’s gonna be all right.
And P.P.S., by the way, if by some chance you folks do manage to straighten things out and make everything better, I still don’t wish to be included.”
― George Carlin, Brain Droppings
CompressedInfo
But what, at this point, is additional alarmism supposed to achieve? Decarbonization is already underway. Solar power is the cheapest new power to install, and installers are fully booked 24 months out. Electric cars are becoming more popular everywhere. Solar and wind now sometimes make up 80-90% of the power consumption in Texas
We're on the case. It's going to take a while. It'll get worse before it gets better, but we're on the case. No one needs additional convincing
SlickWithaLimerick
*Project 2025 has entered the chat*
ChocolateCookieAndFudge
"no one needs additional convicing" have you even spoken to your colleagues or neighbours? Because I can hit a global warming dernier every where I throw a stone (or whatever is the English expression).
trippingthelightfantastic
You are correct
starkeclipse
We need more policies implementing this. Taxing energy use for corporations. Making and selling local. There are still additional things that could help.
CompressedInfo
Fair enough, but alarmism isn't the thing that will advance those things. Alarmism draws attention to the subject in the first place. But we're all paying attention. Like, I agree that we need to be doing everything we can, but hair-on-fire isn't going to move the needle at the moment. We need bureaucracy, not showmanship
smitmp02
Both?
anotherIngloriousHandle
all human-made
because naysayers only gloss over as if it’s natural
they don’t think we can do anything about it
Ree81
New year, new claim that's being spread like the plague. A few years ago it was "What global warming?", then "Well THIS graph (of the uppermost layer in the atmosphere) shows cooling!", then "Climate change is natural"....... but all along the way, they've gotten lazier and lazier about trying to source, so now it's just down to soundbytes lol.
MeezieGirl
Good news? You will die from famine and starvation before the heat kills you. The pollinators thrive in a narrow temperature range. Once they're gone, we're next. And the ocean life has an equally narrower Goldilocks Zone. We've been watching species die by the thousands since the 1980s. WTF are we waiting for?!?
Ree81
The rich says: Sorry, don't have enough money yet.
TsubakiTragic
welp, we're screwed. goodbye, so long, and thanks for all the fish.
FeChefImgur
obligatory xkcd:
ProudAussie
The planet will be fine. Us humans and sone animals won't be though.
HisDudness
'The Earth will shake us off like a bad case of the fleas. The planet will be fine. The people are FUCKED!' - George Carlin
StarscreamAndHutch
#1 so we need WWIII in order to make it better, or finish the chart.
Carl99
he was saying the last spike upwards before 2000 was WW2 i believe.
ReallyNotSure
year 2100 - human-heat-deathzones - business-as-usual-model /gallery/QZMrvpw
MisterLemons
"Phew. Not my land"
NaughtButOne
(and if you're thinking, "okay good I'm not in the affected area(s)" - remember that the people who *are* will have to go somewhere, and they won't care if your town has no rooms, or supplies. Humans get nasty when pressed.)
NotSinceTheAccidend
I kinda believe this is why murica wants to build a southern border wall.
freshthrowaway1138
Yep, there are 2 solutions for CC action in the US.
1)We build infrastructure to transport 50M Central Americans out of death zones to various places across the N.US and Canada. Working to integrate them for a safer future and Climate Stability.
2) We build the infrastructure to kill 50M Central Americans who flee death zones before they cross our Southern Border.
NotSinceTheAccidend
One of those sounds like a utopia. How about a 3rd option which consists of paying money to be smuggled in.
freshthrowaway1138
I...can't tell if you're being serious. I mean, I get that Americans are capitalists, but really?
lordnequam
Man, we're going to have to build a LOT more air conditioners.
Ree81
A map from 2020 is, unfortunately, basically ancient at this point. Soooo much "catastrophic crap" has become known in these past few years. I know I sound a bit loony, but I honestly think "this is what happens to smart species in the universe". We just snuff out. Again, the science out there basically supports it. It's so bad (in the field of climate science, as everyone is ringing the warning bells until their arms fall off).
ReallyNotSure
... the link in the post itself can give you a current map
https://geoxc-apps.bd.esri.com/MoraLabs/GlobalRiskOfDeadlyHeat/index.html#
FoxySpirit
7 billion populance will easily survive a 99% loss of individuals. 70 million is more than a stable gene pool and very far away from being endangered. Our current societies would be gone, but not mankind.
theMonkeyTrap
okay, until you realize you & I are most likely to be a part of the 99% because there will be a tollbooth at every survival step. and reduction in life expectancy will be gradual so it wont even make the news.
FoxySpirit
I know. I am not looking forward to it. Just from a high level species goes extinct event we are pretty safe.
newsguycraigevans
That's the spirit!
nevergoingtogiveyouupnevergoingtoletyoudown
Buckle up bitches, it can get a whole lot worse.
theMonkeyTrap
yes BAU gets us to the PETM peak via a slippery slope. we have some discretion till 3C rise, after that, other effects like permafrost thaw etc will contribute heavily. basically game over for most of biosphere and 95% of humans.
but we'll always have the bitcoins we mined and USDs we printed.
knubberrub
My understanding, from a few years ago, is if the AMOC aka "Atlantic Conveyor Belt" does collapse, the weather change in England would be a *drop* of 5-10 degrees, making for much much longer winters. The circulation of warm water from the south is the only thing keeping agriculture functioning in the UK.
freshthrowaway1138
Yeah, this is an important point that the arrangement of graphics misinterprets. Northern and Central Europe would have much colder temps on average, meaning places like Scandinavia would basically lose their growing seasons and Central Europe would have much shorter and colder growing seasons. Collapse, yes; but in an exciting way!
Oh and because of that coldness, summer heat storms coming up from Africa would cause so many other devastating effects that Western EU would be destroyed.
LordHelmetTheThird
Also, a fun thing to mention, that same conveyor belt is also responsible for bringing nutrient rich water to a lot of places. Wonder what will happen to the sea life in all those places when that happens and whether or not that will have some other negative consequences globally.
knubberrub
Right! And colder water carries more oxygen, so the cold water *not* going south again with all the nutrients could suffocate the benthic layer at least. Scary stuff.
LordHelmetTheThird
I didn’t even think of that… shit this is not going to be fun!
trippingthelightfantastic
allnewuserforyou
[citation needed.]
Is this a general poll? Climate scientists? Oil executives?
delpharseven
Who was being polled? If it was the general population of Canada or the US, I am shocked that complete denial isn't much much higher.
moreSaucePlease
#1 how do they source this information? AFAIK they don’t have sufficient written records of global temps going that far back. Are they extrapolating from tree rings or something? (not trying to debunk, genuinely curious)
itdoesntmatternoneofthismatters
https://www.bas.ac.uk/data/our-data/publication/ice-cores-and-climate-change/ "The oldest continuous ice core records to date extend 123,000 years in Greenland and 800,000 years in Antarctica. Ice cores contain information about past temperature, and about many other aspects of the environment."
Ree81
1/2 There's something called "uncertainty" in science, but it's not the same type of word us commoners use to describe things. Instead, scientific "uncertainty" means that "It's very likely like this, but you should account for some slight variability".
Like trying to predict the weather 1000 years ago, on July 4th 1024. It's literally impossible to *KNOW* what it was, but we can estimate very accurately how the climate on the planet was, "with some local uncertainty".
In reality this
Ree81
2/2 means that we're just estimating the temperature 2000 years ago, based on some "uncertain" data. Again, year by year variability will likely not be accurate to the graph, BUT, it's still extremely certain it looked like this "just about".
Lemme know if you're confused lol
Ree81
3/3 (D'oh). They source this by "proxy data". You can google it to know more, but it's definitely not impossible to tell "what temperature it was in this area" by say, carbon dating plants that survive in certain climates.
DrLOAC
Hey @OP, let me introduce you to another fun chart Ocean Heat Content 0-2000M.
That energy imbalance you noted - here’s where it’s going.
We’ve dumped an extra ~ 3.7X10^23 joules of heat into the oceans over the last 50 years. That’s equivalent to about 75% of the energy released by the asteroid impact that killed the dinosaurs 66M years ago or 200 A-bombs exploding every minute for the last 50 years
I’m sure it’s fine.
Ree81
10^23.. means 23 zeroes, right? So something like 3700000000000000000000000 joules? :P
DrLOAC
You got it.
TheyDontKnowAndYouCantTellEm
That doesn't look so good. You got a Sharpie handy?
LordHelmetTheThird
But that chart is from 2020. Surely that sharp incline has turned downward since, right? RIGHT?
NaughtButOne
TheyDontKnowAndYouCantTellEm
FOOOKKKK!!!
BranDohCalrissian
Nothing short of a world-scale revolt will save us.
gesel
That would absolutely doom the vast majority of human population to misery and death, sadly. If only it were so easy. Most of the world depends on cheap energy and transport for food and shelter (the latter becoming more critical as the world heats). That has to be cheap in away only globalization can remotely provide or much of the world simply starves. 5% of current GWP is needed to mitigate climate change. If GWP were to fail, humanity simply can't build the green infrastructure needed.
Thornaxe
Renewables have gotten cheaper far faster than anyone thought possible. We’re basically one battery breakthrough (a heavy battery with great charge cycles and minimal rare earth requirements) away from a fully renewable grid.
Ree81
My only "hope" is that people will wake up from some extreme catastrophe. Like a hurricane that levels entire cities, or a drought that kills hundreds of thousands.
The catastrophes *are* going to happen. I just don't know if it'll be enough to cause any changes. I mean, look around. *gestures at everything*
NotSinceTheAccidend
I’ve been telling my parents to gtfo of Florida before a hurricane makes them stop rebuilding infrastructure. It isn’t about total devastation, just until it isn’t worth fixing anymore. Don’t wait until everyone knows this, it’ll be too late.
FoxySpirit
Of course. But that's already the "too late" stage. And the coming generations will spit on our graves for it. Rightfully so.
NaughtButOne
The good news is that you'll get a world-scale revolt. The bad news is that it will come after the fact, as fresh water reserves are depleted or contaminated, crops fail, and coastal populations are forced inland. All these people will clash because there flatly won't be enough of *anything* to go around - food, water, shelter, medicine - and then the automatic weapons come out.
ThaneofGlamis
Ah yes…. The prequel to our very own version of Mad Max
gesel
Sadly, this seems a plausible scenario. We can accelerate it by having revolts sooner. Every revolt diverts critical resources to war & destroys infrastructure. We need global peace and prosperity and to redirect a mere 0.1% of GWP into green innovation at sovereign fund WACC hurdles to drive green energy costs < $0.10/watt installed, $0.01/kWh plug. Make it cheaper than the 50m yr solar charged Carboniferous battery that has powered humanity for 200 yrs and leave it in the ground.
webbstar85
Strange how corporations are the cause of most of this. But oh no, dont you dare get in the way of profit
Ree81
Sorry, but blaming corporations is just a way of pushing guilt onto someone else, like how some say "It's China and India polluting the most".
Again, if there's cars outside your window, and shopping malls near you, you're in a country that's filled to the brim with guilty people.
TurdBurglar3000
I'll never get tired pointing this out and always get downvoted to hell.
FoxySpirit
It's corporations in the sense as in they are most pushing against climate change policies and sponsor politicians who are against them. They have also blantantly lied in the past, sowing division and insecurity on the issue.
You as the individual, even as organised groups, can not realise the broad sweeping changes that would need to be done on every level. Only politics can.
HisDudness
You can certainly blame them for the abundance of cars, at least in the US as I can't speak for others. Things like them buying up rail lines and ripping them out so that people had no choice but to drive. And now you have places like Los Angeles where it's impossible to put in public rails as the city has grown so dense you have nowhere to put them.
I'm not saying we're all innocent, but corpos have the lion's share of the blame.
Ree81
There's definitely some sort of 'rich cabal' that have influenced the world. Still, I'd say a lot of us knew and just shrugged, just like we're doing right now. People know OF climate change, but seem to shrug it off.
It's like we can't really act on it because "It'll mean my job, my car, my luxuries, my entire career, everything I've worked so hard for and love". And I have no idea if it's even possible to get past that for most...
HisDudness
For the most of us in the US, we literally cannot afford to do anything. I have no time to get out, protest, or anything, because I can't just not go to work. I have to be able to afford housing, food, all those basic things. I can't even afford luxuries.
So, for me to get involved in any way means I become homeless.
Ree81
Everyone has at least 15 minutes a day to do *something* or we'd stress out and.. die.
If you want a tip on how to do effective activism, e-mail journalists 1-2 graphs at a time, and explain that humanity right now is just ignorant, and that it's "your responsibility to educate the people on important topics, and we're facing basically world war 3 if we don't get our act together on this s---!".