vladrichdemaclant
17165
337
5
Jul 12, 2026 8:24 PM
vladrichdemaclant
17165
337
5
CelestialSea
Saw a video the other day explaining how bad the situation is for Russia. A month ago there were 98 ships in transit on the Sea of Azov, yesterday there were 3. Apparently there's about two weeks left before front-line units start to suffer severe limitations in combat readiness.
TerribleBot
jlist
And it's a trend that's only increasing from here. Or maybe it will stop tomorrow, when all the ships remove themselves from the area
OregonComputerGuy
69Voltage
Awesome
secularink
SecretAgentSuperBooger
UsernameRequired
TheDogEnd
Well Crimea river
candythesquirrel
Oh hey, my home region is on this map
KKinDK
I LOVE your French! 😍
Evenmoreuselessname
GordonFreeman59
As a Frenchman, I talked with the others french people and we will allow it, pas d'inquiétudes.
DVSBSTrD
@OP
TheVillageGrouch9000
↑
RetrogradeLlama
TyrannusEquus
I need that Feltface gif. Good. Fuckem.
bippityboppitybuttsex
I mean yes, but until Russia agrees to withdraw its forces from Ukrainian territory (all Ukrainian territory), the war is not won.... Russia still has a formidable ground force in the occupied areas and is still a threat to Ukrainian civilians.
Russia also still possesses a substantial drone and missile threat to every Ukrainian and that threat must be eliminated, and Ukraine needs to destroy Russia's ability to make war.
MrOne2
Putin cannot afford to be perceived as a loser, the oligarchs will riot. So for that alone I think he's willing to extend the war for a long time. And most of the Russians are willing to go along with his plan.
bippityboppitybuttsex
Up to a point.
Their agreement is based on the war not affecting them... it is now affecting them.
The Russian Army's ability to convince people to volunteer to die in Ukraine is becoming limited, at some point Putin is going to need to tap into the conscripted military (my guess is they already are). Tho, I highly doubt that will be done en masse simply because not killing the children of rich kids is Putin's primary objective (fuck the poor kids).
DVSBSTrD
The war is not won until Putin's head sits on Zelenskyy's desk.
bippityboppitybuttsex
The war is won when Russia returns all stolen Ukrainian territory to Ukraine and there is a DMZ 100 miles inside Russia.
Ukraine needs to be in NATO to reinforce the security guarantees made in 1994 in exchange for giving up its nukes.
Russia needs to be dissolved. It is the Israel of Eastern Europe.
swedeonamoose
Russias air force is still pretty much untouched tbh, even if we assume only like 50% of their total numbers are even fly worthy.
bippityboppitybuttsex
Well, mostly cuz the Russian Air Force avoids Ukrainian air space like the plague cuz t knows it will be blown out of the sky.
I used to be in a US Army Air Defense Unit (Bradley Stingers, M6 Linebackers) and it was deactivated cuz the US Army realized it had not lost anyone to enemy air since 1953.... why? Because the US Army does not engage in ground combat until after the USAF has achieved absolute air superiority....
Russia forgot to do that in Ukraine.
cuzitsthere
Well... That and stingers and linebackers require LOS and ASMs don't... PATRIOT is better, but you're right it's 90% USAF
bippityboppitybuttsex
So, the primary mission for the Stinger and other MANPADs is attack helicopters, not fast movers... I mean, it can hit fast movers (sorta, I mean, if it is flying low your search window is like a second and if high altitude, you ain't gonna reach it)... the missile isn't magic, to hit something at high altitude requires search radars and telephone-pole sized missiles
cuzitsthere
I was a 14E Patriot operator for about a decade and I liked my telephone poles lol
choicebutts2
Ukraine has bombed so much of Russia's oil storage, processing, and distribution that it's caused critical gas shortages. It's so bad that gas in Crimea is reserved for government and emergency services. Logistics in general are screwed. Civilians are trying to flee Crimea. Army recruitment is failing, no mobilization is planned, and they're just yanking guys off the street again. It's not going well for Russia.
bippityboppitybuttsex
Russia should start a nationwide draft.
And I am saying this as a staunch supporter of Ukraine...
The mass revolt it would cause could drop Putin's government in days.
choicebutts2
They're planning a mobilization in the fall of this year. They'll probably double down on yoinking guys off the street and off the job.
bippityboppitybuttsex
Shit, I thought you were speculating...
https://united24media.com/world/kremlin-runs-out-of-volunteers-reportedly-forcing-officials-to-plan-unpopular-autumn-mobilization-20143
I am curious tho, why mobilize before the Winter pause? They have no plans on training any of them ... why stock up on bodies and park them for months?
choicebutts2
Winter pause? I don't recall that in the past. I thought winter was prime time because the ground is frozen. Spring and fall it's all mud.
Suomijuusto89
Since the Ivans are not getting enough fuel for grain collection and logistics now, does that mean that Moscow will run out of bread in the shops and vodka in the pubs next winter?
choicebutts2
The peasants still have their animals. Russia is vast and rural. Most people in the countryside have either small farms or gardens, some have livestock. Reindeer herders still exist in Siberia. Russia can count on food and trade with China and other BRICS nations. The logistic problems affect electricity needed to operate water systems in Crimea, gas and diesel for military and industry, and military and industrial movement thanks to Ukraine's skillful use of its massive drone fleet.
hsalonen3000
While I agree with bippityboppitybuttsex, I am tired at this war, and I would settle for current situation, with safety guarantees for Ukraine and Russia paying some compensation for this. This war is draining resources from all over Europe, impacting our economy and I don't see Ukraine ever destroying the Russian war machine. There will always be new Siberian boys for the war meat grinder.
bippityboppitybuttsex
In 1994, Ukraine gave up its nukes in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the US and UK. They traded the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world for security.
They were invaded by Russia 20 years later.
So, tell me, what security guarantees could Russia make that Ukraine would believe now?
usernameusedinlessplatforms2
Well, your settling to something doesn't matter much.
Putin will not settle for anything less than Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk and Zaporizzia totally (prolly also needs a puppet govt to Ukraine for peace currently)
And doubt Ukrainians would settle for that. How you feel is Ano was to be the president on top of losing everything east of kotka-mikkeli-lieksa?
Also russia(putin) is fucked without war in its current economy.. if there's peace in Ukraine.. where would be the conflict Putin needs?
SavageDrums
They don't need to destroy the war machine, they're destroying the fuel for the war machine and that's going to be more than enough.
choicebutts2
Ukraine isn't trying to "destroy the Russian war machine." It's defending itself against invaders. Russia "size" is mostly land mass; their population is only 143 million compared to the U.S.'s 340. Russia has already had a million casualties, one percent of its population. They've already emptied prisons and likely decimated the Tuvans. Their economy will collapse because they're killing off their own damn workforce.
bippityboppitybuttsex
Ukraine is, dollar for dollar, the most effective means to reduce the Russian ability to make war.
The US and NATO spent $13.1 trillion to control the Soviet Union... Ukraine has basically destroyed the Russian Army for a fraction of that... hell, the US has spent about $195B supplying Ukraine and has done more real damage to the Russian Army than was done during the entirety of the Cold War (a note that Europe has spent about $226B on the war, still a fraction of what was spent on the cold war
mabbo
You need to supply your soldiers with ammo and food. In Crimea and Kherson, it seems they already are barely able to do that thanks to mid-range drones. If they run out of money entirely, if their economy collapses, then all the soldiers are done. It could be a long winter for Russian soldiers.
bippityboppitybuttsex
Money isn't the issue for Russia, just getting basic foodstuffs to civilians in Crimea is becoming impossible...
The reality here is that Ukraine has made supplying Russian troops impossible and they will have to withdraw as their friendly lines disappear.
mabbo
Money is how Russia motivates people to move basic foodstuffs to places. If their economy collapses, Russia has no money that anyone will accept because it's worthless. They've been burning their cash reserves wildly. They've got high inflation already. Their income is largely from oil, and that is being kinetically sanctioned. Their war expenses keep *growing*. Sooner or later, they start printing money, and now you're into hyperinflation and it's over.
bippityboppitybuttsex
I mean that Russia has managed its finances remarkably well considering the costs of the war, loss of oil revenue, paying out massive bonuses to die in Ukraine... most other countries would have collapsed already.
Oddly, their own isolation and sanctions against them may help to stabilize their economy.
That being said, the average Russian is experiencing pretty extreme inflation... a reminder tho, that Russians don't have much of a way to redress grievances without dying in prison.
ID1746
Wont be a long winter for the current Russian soldiers, their life-expectancy on the Ukranian front is horribly low, something like a few hours after they arrive (and even less on the heavy fronts) https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russian-soldiers-killed-front-lines-ukraine-war-drones/
In short, the fantasy Warhammer 40K universe with the Imperial Guard insane dying numbers offers a better life expectancy then a Russian front in Ukraine...
Deathcameawienering
Last I saw was 30 min life expectancy
bippityboppitybuttsex
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russian-soldiers-losses-ukraine-frontline-drone-attack-b3006348.html
That says 20 minutes.
duktayp
What I'm afraid of is Putin getting desperate and going nuclear
Causeitsmadeofmeat
So are you a paid russian bot? He knows that would be his death. China made that clear to him
bigdix69420
Why would he nuke the place he wants to occupy
OnyxTurret
Its questionable oif they even have any functional nukes anyway.
YeastInfectedWhiskerBiscuit
Putin can bark about nukes all he wants. If he launches just one, the entire western alliance, just as a warning, will drop dozens on him. I believe China has also told Poopster NO NUKES!.
cuzitsthere
He won't... That's like a guy with a hostage threatening to shoot the hostage. We don't want the hostage to die, but the hostage taker REALLY doesn't want to lose his hostage.
Mohareb
China has red lined that fairly open for russia, so no
Whoisthisdoctorwho2000
I amn't concerned about that at all, the people who charged with loosing thise weapons have all made their choice years ago as to what they're going to do when the call comes
Bhurano
IF Putin goes nuclear Russia will be turned into a parking lot. Not only by the so-called West, but also by his very own allies.
Cause the decision loop when it comes to nukes is measured in 2 to 3 minutes, maximum. That's not enough time to even find out WHERE a launched nuke will land.
That means everyone has to launch. Nukes area loose-loose condition, not a win some loose some thingy. They are standoff weapon system, the moment they are used everyone has to.
ElbowDeepInUserSub
A lot of people say "oh those bombs surely haven't been properly maintained, so no". But they fail to understand that if a nuke doesn't go fissile, it's a dirty bomb which is definitively worse.
ElbowDeepInUserSub
This isn't entirely accurate, read below to learn why. Thanks, and sorry!
Bhurano
Goddamn, no a dirty bomb is a bomb with something extra, like Cobalt, IIRC. That makes it a dirty bomb, cause in that case the detonation will make the entire affected area uninhabitable for a long, long, long time.
Russia has the problem that they don't even know if their nukes will fly and even if they do, if they can detonate. Nukes are finely tuned and need to be maintained for that to be true. If there's something out of alignment? Well, no detonation or at best a incomplete one.
SavageDrums
The nuke doesn't matter if there's no way to launch it
KerryCoder
Uh, I'm 100% sure a fissile nuke is worse than a dirty bomb, otherwise nukes wouldn't be set to go fissile.
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thundercactus
A nuke that *only blows it's core apart* isn't that bad, and it's not nearly as difficult to clean up. You can handle nuclear weapons grade plutonium with latex gloves, and a nuke only carries a few kg's of it. The danger of dirty bombs is more effective radioactive isotopes, like Co-60 (the kind used in medicine).
A nuclear FIZZLE or full detonation is the worst case, because fission creates fission byproducts, and also releases a shitload of neutrons which make other things radioactive.
thundercactus
Live nuclear weapons have been involved in a shocking number of B-52 crashes and unplanned ICBM explosions. The resulting fallout was easily managed. However, a complete nuclear detonation leaves a large area radioactive for a very long time, which is why nobody goes near nuclear test sites. In fact, the whole reason they started testing nukes underground was to capture the subsequent fallout.
ElbowDeepInUserSub
Ahhh, you know, I learned and relearned a couple of things today. I remember knowing that true dirty bombs are made with other radioactive materials, but as can happen with information that we don't think about over long periods, I forgot those details, and inadvertently misspoke. I'll leave my first comment up as the base of this exchange, but I'm going to delete the other because it's not accurate. Thank you for being civil about it. <3
VulcanTourist
Putin will threaten it but never do it. The entire point of the war is to annex territory, so making that territory fully unlivable is not a strategy that he can pursue. But he will use the threat as leverage endlessly.
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Alexap30
Bombs and nuclear factories accidents are not the same. Nuclear bombs are cleaner now with less fallout. So yes, Putin going nuclear means that the areas will still be livable. On the other hand, Chernobyl, Pripyat or the red forest are traversible, but living there is by no means safe. There where accounts of Russian soldiers traversing the area and their foot steps lifted up detectable amounts of radioactive dust. Radiation is weird. You have to take into account the type, amount and time.
KoalaOnTheJuice
I disagree with that actually. It's a mistake to think that Putin cares about owning territory. What he cares about is controlling Ukraine politically. He wants the war to collapse the Ukrainian government, Zelenski out and a Russian stooge back in like Ukraine used to have and Belarus still does. The purpose of occupying territory is that a peace deal where Ukraine loses territory would cause political chaos inside Ukraine which Putin could exploit. He doesn't give a shit about the land itself.
bril350
He does care about the land itself. Ukraine is a huge bread basket if Putin controls that either directly or through a puppet as you mentioned, he has a stranglehold on the world food supplies.
KoalaOnTheJuice
This is nothing more than a "nice to have" for Putin. The main goal is regime security in Russia.
It is mentally intolerable for him to have a country so closely tied to Russia historically becoming more democratic and european facing and thriving. Not only does that provide an alternative model for citizens of other countries Putin controls (without owning) such as Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazahkstan etc, it also provides a model for *Russian citizens*. It shows life without him.
VulcanTourist
You just contradicted yourself: what's left to "control politically" if he nukes the country and murders everyone in one go? What's the fucking point of political control if the land has become permanently uninhabitable?
KoalaOnTheJuice
Oh I agree that he won't want to use nukes. But that's because using them makes him personally less safe and his own safety is his top priority and consideration.
On 'control', he likewise thinks his safety is improved if the new Ukraine (ie a democratic, european, alternative vision of Russia) is made non-viable, weakened and unable to thrive. He doesn't need ownership to achieve this and doesn't care too much about its resources etc. Those would be negotiable so long as ukraine is fucked.
VulcanTourist
I.e., the point of the war is "lebensraum". That will be a term familiar to people who know something of the motivations of World War II.
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FoamingToad
Not to mention oil reserves beneath the sea of Azov - there's reportedly a mass there. Plus, wasn't there lithium deposits that trump was after?
VegaJuniper
It's not. Lebensraum means "living space", it's only a relevant concept when you have a large surplus population and you need space for them to live on, or farmland to feed them. Russia has the exact opposite problem, it has too much space for the small and rapidly aging population it has.
VulcanTourist
It's very much a relevant concept when Ukraine possesses land that is MUCH MORE DESIRABLE than most of what exists inside Russia's current borders. Putin wants the more temperate land for Rus colonization AND its resources.
VegaJuniper
That’s not what the war is about, at all.