CognosNerd
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Cumulative Covid19 Deaths with forecast May 15 - June 18
@RedRobbinsYummmm
May 17, 2020 3:21 AM
CognosNerd
332
2
3
@RedRobbinsYummmm
ExpectedDickbuttGotDickbutt
Dude. You know your stats are out when your lower bound for CUMULATIVE deaths is less than the current total.
CognosNerd
Not much I can do about that unfortunately. Cumulative doesn't always mean greater than previous.
CognosNerd
Also, with the death rate going down in some places it models it as possibly going negative. Most I can do is shorten the forecast period.
ExpectedDickbuttGotDickbutt
The very definition of cumulative is > / = to previous. Cumulative deaths can’t go down. Unless zombies.
CognosNerd
Cumulative simply means the sum of all previous values. If the values are always positive, then yes, it would always be greater.
CognosNerd
As I said, I am unable to change the model used to indicate the values are always positive. I've raised it as a bug.
drj37
Actually, overall deaths can go down as death certificates are amended to include the actual cause when someone died with covid instead of..
drj37
Dying OF covid.
drj37
Colorado just did this, and lowered its death total from 1150 to 878. While not a significant decrease in the overall amount, it still...