Mehlbox
58459
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The average US citizen estimates that
Every fifth US citizen is transgender.
Every fourth US household has an income of over 500,000$.
Every third US citizen is gay or lesbian.
Every second US citizen is either muslimic or jewish.
Nearly half of the US population is black.
Every third adult US citizen is unionized.
One in three adult US citizens has finished high school.
This has the fingerprints of a massive structural media bias combined with a poor education system all over it, though the study delivers a different explanation.
I think it would be quite difficult for a population this disinformed making grounded democratic decisions.
Source: https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/41556-americans-misestimate-small-subgroups-population
"When people’s average perceptions of group sizes are compared to actual population estimates, an intriguing pattern emerges: Americans tend to vastly overestimate the size of minority groups.
This holds for sexual minorities, including the proportion of gays and lesbians (estimate: 30%, true: 3%), bisexuals (estimate: 29%, true: 4%), and people who are transgender (estimate: 21%, true: 0.6%).
It also applies to religious minorities, such as Muslim Americans (estimate: 27%, true: 1%) and Jewish Americans (estimate: 30%, true: 2%). And we find the same sorts of overestimates for racial and ethnic minorities, such as Native Americans (estimate: 27%, true: 1%), Asian Americans (estimate: 29%, true: 6%), and Black Americans (estimate: 41%, true: 12%)."
The study's explanation:
"Why is demographic math so difficult? One recent meta-study suggests that when people are asked to make an estimation they are uncertain about, such as the size of a population, they tend to rescale their perceptions in a rational manner. When a person’s lived experience suggests an extreme value — such as a small proportion of people who are Jewish or a large proportion of people who are Christian — they often assume, reasonably, that their experiences are biased. In response, they adjust their prior estimate of a group’s size accordingly by shifting it closer to what they perceive to be the mean group size (that is, 50%). This can facilitate misestimation in surveys, such as ours, which don’t require people to make tradeoffs by constraining the sum of group proportions within a certain category to 100%.
This reasoning process — referred to as uncertainty-based rescaling — leads people to systematically overestimate the size of small values and underestimate the size of large values. It also explains why estimates of populations closer to 0% (e.g., LGBT people, Muslims, and Native Americans) and populations closer to 100% (e.g., adults with a high school degree or who own a car) are less accurate than estimates of populations that are closer to 50%, such as the percentage of American adults who are married or have a child."
lurkervondurker
I for one welcome the influx of the trans Muslim millionaires from New York.
getyourfruitoffmeyoudamndirtygrapes
Um...yeah...might want to run the numbers again with a better source of data.
OneBabyOneHamburgerBun
You can (and should) blame Regan's actor ass for the education system becoming a target of frequent dismantling campaigns and for it getting this bad.
ChainmailleAddict
That absolutely played into it, but this particular study is garbage. They used online sliders to poll people and they left it at 50% a lot of the time, skewing results towards the center. People aren't THAT dumb.
Citizen7
I can't help but wonder how well these estimates line up with the world presented to us through our television sets.
Canonmk2
It would show that all minorities are hugely over represented
Allyserlyt
Has anyone who is unfamiliar with percentages been questioned?
The701
Volpe42
Option polls are inherently unreliable. Also easily tailored and skewed
ChainmailleAddict
Correct! This study in particular was conducted online using sliders. So people left it at 50% a lot of the time and it created a center bias. It should've been taken vocally.
PicassoCT
The percentage is of how much a topic gets discourse time on television. Instead of the actual problems.
ProppaGanda
People are generally extremely shitty at probability. 90% of drivers think that they're better than the average. People are afraid of flying but casually get into cars. They believe Biden's presidency got unionization rate to rise.
Jmart081
3% are atheist? How can they poll this Some stats are a more accurate than others.
This sounds alot like these political polls that go around.
It's not so easy to poll people's beliefs, hell even finances can be hidden.
AttilaTheHungover
I'm amazed that so few are atheist... I think they're all on imgur.
Littledirtybirdyfeet
That's because not all non-religious identify as athiest.
ZomBee627
Agnostic Theist gang rise up. Most people club me in with Atheist basis their lack of understanding around Agnosticism, but alas.
ilyasInternetSmuggler
Asian 29%, Black 41% and Hispanic 39%. Didn't realise there was no white people left in the US aside from Trumps up coming administration.
porphyre1e00
I'll admit my impression was close to the polls. I thought we were much closer to minority-majority. Guess the country really is totally fucked. The GOP is a monoblock while the Democratic party is a coalition. At 64% white, it's gonna take another generation before the GOP shrinks enough to lose power. :(
Canonmk2
Are you White? Because if you think a US with non White government is all sunshine and rainbows, then clearly don't have a clue what is happening in the real world
RecurringNightmare
the republicans absolutely are a coalition...there are the blible-fascists, the "normal" oldschool backwards conservatives who are against any progress, the rich assholes that only care about lower taxes and higher stock markets, the libertarians who are just against all governments in general, etc...some of them want an ultra-authoritarian theocracy, others total anarchy, the only common goals and values they share are hatred, stupidity, hypocrisy and lies...
RayneOfSalt
Only 3% of americans are atheists? really?
boondoggle2025
42% Dem and 47% Repub???
merxman
About 245m people are eligible to vote. 182m are registered (74%). 8 states don't report registration statistics, so the real number /1
merxman
Is likely higher. Not all states report party affiliation or have date available. Of the 30 that do, we get 36m Republicans and /2
merxman
45m Democrats. This is skewed because two of the biggest blue states, CA and NY, are among those who report affiliation, whereas Texas /3
merxman
does not, lowering Republican registration reports. Per USA Facts and UofF Election Lab. Other sources have other numbers, specifically /4
merxman
Because a lot of states don't report registration breakdown, so it's not an easy statistic to validate one way or the other.
adisander
Something's flat out wrong there no matter how you slice it. If you round up the percentages from the last election to fit the entire population it would be 48% and 50% (rounded a little). If the number of votes in relation to the total adult US population, 27% and 28%. By registered members to total adult population 17% and 13%, and by registered members to all adults registered with political parties in the US 55% and 42%. Nothing matches.
ishouldprobablybeworkingrightnow
Pretty sure atheist is larger than 3%, definitely not 20, but still
Noughmad
I don't believe the estimated results came from real people. By simple math, Jews+Muslims+Atheists+Catholics are already over 100% of the population. Al least the other aren't mutually exclusive. Although, I also don't think anyone believes that more than half of the people with an income over $100k have an income over $1M.
ChainmailleAddict
The results came from real people, but they were gathered online using sliders that people often left at 50%, resulting in a center bias. The results are therefore complete garbage and should've been gathered vocally.
RevolutionOnHerLips
You're assuming people did math, that's your first problem lol
PaperinoVB
I'd like to look at this ordered for discrepancy between real and perceived proportions.
DarthVaderDidNothingWrong
Jarjarthejedi
Piggietails
JarJar delivers
BlackHoleSon01
Those surveyed estimated 77% read a book in the past year. Actual percentage is put at 50%.
I guarantee that 50% of Americans did not read an actual chapter book last year. I'll bet 50% of Americans haven't read one book since they finished school and at least 25% have never read a book period.
BlackHoleSon01
You think MTG read a book last year? Matt Gaetz? Donald Fucking Trump? Coloring books don't count, people.
PaperinoVB
Thank you. With these data now (well, tomorrow, if I find the time :-D) I can calculate what I really want to know, the actual percentage difference between a perceived and an actual value.
I mean: between 60 perceived and 40 real the difference is 20, but between 21 and 1 the absolute difference is also 20, right?
BUT in the first case there is an overestimate of 50%, in the second the overestimate is of almost 2000%.
Gibleteousjack
3% Atheists? I would have guessed more based on myself and friends.
Tarmaccian
I am not an atheist.
I am an agnostic, so not only do I not believe in any deity, I don’t believe in the faith that there isn’t any.
I also usually leave such survey questions blank, like a lot of non-theists, so there may be some reporting bias in that particular statistic…
ThanatosElNyx
Exactly, that is still atheism. For those unfamiliar compare Strong Atheism vs Weak Atheism.
Froggie243
There's no way that's accurate. This stinks of bad questions.
Jarjarthejedi
You're probably bundling a bunch of different groups together. This is meant to be full on "there is definitely 100% no higher power" atheists, which Pew shows ~3% of Americans self-identify as. "I am not religious/I don't know/I don't care" and "I am agnostic" were also options in the poll, and all together they add up to ~23% of the population, which is probably more in line with what you're thinking. https://www.pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/database/
bamblebimble
27% wouldn't be every 2nd it would be every 4th. Not only is this an inaccurate poll, but even your statements are inaccurate
merxman
You just proved the point, really. They said Muslim or Jewish, 27% + 30% = 57%, or about one in two.
bamblebimble
You can't pick two separate points like that and say people think this. How do you know the people polled didn't each say all for one and none for the other? Once again also pointing out the naturally high bias that exists due to how this poll was conducted.
Also, if me replying while still being unable to see properly after waking up proves their point then so be it.
Spidermonkey969696
Some of these numbers seem unreliable. Only 3% gay or lesbian and only 4% bisexual? How are they calculating that? It seems likely that in a country where those things are prosecuted people wouldn't necessarily out themselves in a survey or tell thier doctor.
cheese4432
this is about the USA
Omni21
I didn't think 65% of people own a home. That seems high.
ButtblasterMcAssmaster
The 3% atheist is what threw me off. While the answer to this question depends a lot on how exactly it's phrased, I've never seen any survey that was anywhere near that low. Various degrees of "not really religious" go as high as a third of the population or more. That made me assume any of these could be bullshit.
IceWeaselX
As a kid I didn't even think there were that few LGBTQ people, and I did think they were rare.
As an adult, I know *more* people who are not 100% straight (including people who identify as generally straight but are willing to dabble) than people who are exclusively heterosexual.
That "true" proportion is very, very questionable.
ipeefreely2
I learned some things today, thanks for sharing
ChainmailleAddict
One more thing to learn - this study is garbage because they took the survey online using sliders, resulting in people leaving it at 50% and creating a massive bias towards the center that they wouldn't have gotten over the phone.
ipeefreely2
That's a good point. I was more interested in the red column, checking my own biases than reading what other people thought
CoeurFranc
I’m sure there are the same biases everywhere in the world but not at this level of distortion.
ChainmailleAddict
Correct! This study is garbage. It has a center-bias because the information was gathered online using sliders that people left at 50%.
Mehlbox
You are correct. There are similar studies around the world who show similar tendencies: Overestimating minorities (e.g. France estimating that 31% are muslims in contrast to a real 7.5%), and underestimating majorities. In the US the aberrations are just quite a bit higher.
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/perceptions-are-not-reality-what-world-gets-wrong
Illithidbane
God I wish 33% were atheists.
miserycones
FWIW 3% identify as atheist but 22% are unaffiliated with any religion which is arguably the same thing. In either case:
InternetAnonymityplz
As an agnostic, I would argue that we are not the same but acknowledge that at that point it's mostly semantics. But I am still annoyed by early YouTube smug atheism and its followers so I enjoy my little bit of separation.
OnlyPositiveFavourites
Always bothers me in the census here in Aus when they can write in their own bogus answers and they split up atheist / agnostic / no religion etc. it's all the same practically but breaking it down under represents how many Aussies aren't religious now.
DarthVaderDidNothingWrong
Stigma
Alurkerforcedtologin
Yep. I've personally met people who have said they don't believe in god, but then also strongly insisted that they were NOT an atheist. I asked them each what they thought atheist meant, and none of them could tell me, other than they were NOT ONE. Most of them seemed terrified of being accused of being an atheist. Given the average intelligence around here, and how many people at least claimed go to to church, their fears aren't irrational.
peeopeepeee
When asked I just say it clearly doesn't matter. God or not, no one is saving anyone one of us from the torture that exists on this planet, so if one does exist they better keep hiding cause I'm gonna want a word.
Agreement2agree
I just looked that up because the statistic in Canada is around 35% - but that is "reported having no religious affiliation or a secular perspective (atheist, agnostic, humanist and other secular perspectives)" I feel like this chart has a bit of an agenda behind it.
Margrave9000
Generational surveys have shown that the true proportion of 2SLGBTQQIA ppl is closer to 30 percent. It is systemic oppression that kept the numbers low for centuries. Progressive generationsembrace diversity, allow minorities to express themselves, so it's only normal that LGBT-identifying Gen Z adults reach nearly 30%.
Exyr
That "are Christian" one is why this country is fucked.
Canonmk2
Wait till you see what happens when you vote in other religions
Exyr
Voting based on religion is idiotic. I've never voted on religion. Muslim and Christianity are the same core principles. They are the same.
spitfires2000
No no no no, it's about truly ACTING christian. That's estimated @100% and is maybe 5-10% for real... (I wanted to say ZERO%, tbh)
Decitron
Christianity isn't the problem. The problem *uses* Christianity to exert itself. White supremacy, patriarchy, colonialism/ imperialism, & capitalism. Read bell hooks.
RevolutionOnHerLips
To be fair, Christianity was making a problem of all these things millennia before the US existed. They're practically synonymous.
Decitron
Before it was Christianity, it was "civilization" or "democracy" or "nation" or race, or some other shit, sometimes including other religions, sometimes not. Those things are all excuses for assholes with fancy hats or titles to get people to kill people for the sake to taking those other peoples' shit.
RevolutionOnHerLips
I don't disagree with that, but it's a bit like saying the KKK isn't a problem, racism is. When a structure is founded on and reliant upon damaging beliefs, that structure is also a problem. Its existence protects "assholes with fancy hats" to an alarming degree, as evidenced by things like decades of child molestation coverups with hundreds of victims in one country alone.
Decitron
The KKK is a racist (and otherwise bigoted) organization. Christianity doesn't map on to the issue like the KKK does, unless you really want to put folk like MLK jr or a great-many black Christian lynching victims in the same box as the KKK for religion. Christianity and many religions do have bigotries written into their texts, but in practice, people don't follow all of the texts, for good or ill.
peeopeepeee
If religion disappeared over night, new ones would form before the new year and wars would resume. You can blame the current religions all you want, but people will always try to murder other people, and they will always try to find a scapegoat.
Decitron
If it's not religion, it's race. If it isn't race, it's nation. If it isn't race or nation, it's some other shit. Religion is just like any of that other shit; not the root cause: White folk aren't magically more hostile than others, nations don't need to war over bullshit, & religions, like that other stuff, have coexisted at various places & times through history. The real problem is some asshole(s) want MORE STUFF & need some way to get people to help kill other people so they can TAKE STUFF.
KarmaciouS
Christianism isn't the problem. Religion is. Your problem is that only 3% of your population is atheist which is freaking me out a lot as an european.
Froggie243
There's no way that was an accurate sampling. The question is likely fucked, or it didn't force people to choose a best fit causing them to actually choose that.
PaintinBnnuys
Somebody finally says it. Imagine all the wars, strife, and hatred that never happens in a world without religion. A few bad apples spoil the bunch. If a large enough group practicing the same religion as you is as shitty as they are, and you don't distance yourself from those people, you're part of the problem.
LittleAzie
Its not about distancing yourself from the label, but distancing yourself from the group. You can be Christian (or Jewish, or Islamic, or whatever) and not be part of the group that participates in religious places. The problem is with the institutions corrupting and creating enemies to stay relevant to their groups, not the religion itself. It always has been. Creating a common enemy brings people together. This is the same way Repugs continue to convince people to vote for them.
PaintinBnnuys
Let's say, for an example, the owner of the company you work for starts a policy that all black folks are to be fired. Now, you're not one of them, so you're not being fired. Do you quit? If not, then you're telling thw world you're okay with what the leader is doing. That would be complacency, and the exact reason folks are okay with saying stuff like "Trumpers are racist" and "Cops are bad." Because they're all showing that they're okay with it by sticking around. Religion is no different.
depressedscientist
It’s almost like people have biases… /s
ChainmailleAddict
They do but this particular study is garbage because they gathered the results using sliders which a lot of people left at 50%, creating a massive center bias for the study. People aren't THAT dumb.
depressedscientist
I wasn’t the downvote btw. But I read the article. Part of the explanation was that the people moved the estimate closer to 50% to overcompensate for their presumed bias. The sliders weren’t defaulted to 50%, it just happens to be a default for people when they don’t have a clue of the answer.
ChainmailleAddict
I read it too, I feel like they're trying to explain away their own error to cover up the fact they conducted the study in an inaccurate way to begin with. I don't think people gave serious thought to every answer and just wanted to complete the survey, hence their moving the sliders to close to 50% often enough to skew the results.
Canonmk2
Hilarious that the miniority groups are massively over represented in all forms of media, and yet they still want more. When in fact they should be seen even less.
esparadrapo
"88% own a car" -> Holy forking shirtballs!
esparadrapo
Looked it up and its based on a "cars per capita" statistic. So no, still bad but not as much as you might think.
peeopeepeee
I know multiple people that own more than 3 cars and are single, definitely not a good statistic to go by.
ImNotStalkingYouBTWYoureOutOfMilk
"83% have a driving license" is probably what you should focus on.
VodkaReindeer
Finally I found someone brave enough to write this!
dancinshroom
I like the estimated proportion are vets at 40%...
What fucking idiots think almost half of their entire population are involved in the army? Like that would be around 150,000,000 people, thats insane
peeopeepeee
This entire graph has big "imagine how stupid your average person is, now realize half of people are stupider than that" energy
Ismellofhockey
They also seem to believe over 100 million Americans live in New York City...
agburanar
And the same number in Texas. And since (most) people know TX has the second highest population behind California, that means that basically everyone lives either in CA, TX, or NYC.
tongueblastedfartbox
As a veteran, there are SO many people who falsely claim it and likely tell people they are. I've seen the 2a bros who never served claim it till I call them out. Or the ones who went to boot camp and dropped out. So I can see where an inflated perception comes from. But 40% is just laughable.
JustSeinfeldQuotes
Don't believe every article you read. I have my doubts about this one, but I'm too lazy to look into the statistical analysis of this.
choink
There are a loooot of dumb people in this country.
sofako41404
At least 47% going by the number of republicans.
HydrophobicDude
People who have never left their corner of a midwestern state where a military base is nearby.
NotASpeckOfCereal
See the OPs comments about "uncertainty-based rescaling" in the last paragraph.
1kaura1
To be fair, in my home country just about half of the population is involved in the army due to universal male conscription, as a result we have larger trained reserves than countries with multiple times higher populations
pandajack
And half the people thought it was even more than that.
Sulexar
...you know there's more than just the army, right?
xmaneds
everybody always forgets the Coast Guard
CasuConsulto
You're right, but that person's point still stands; who would think that 40% of the citizens of a nation with an all-volunteer military and a population of over 300 million people have served?
spookyfckr
I myself would of estimated 30-45% have served in some capacity. The draft was only 50 years ago.
CasuConsulto
I considered that when estimating myself (I would have said 10%, which of course is still high), and estimated in my head that maybe 10 million served during Vietnam. The actual number, which I just looked up, is between 8 and 9 million (closer to 9). of those, maybe 6-7 million are still alive. 2% of Americans are therefore Vietnam vets. There aren't too many pre-Vietnam vets still around, and as you get further from Vietnam, the number of personnel goes down relative to the entire population.
peeopeepeee
Only 2.2 million were drafted between 1964 and 1973, or less than 1% of today's population.
spookyfckr
Huh, all the movies have me a bias!
ricbri695
The same people that think 1 in 5 is trans?
W0lfsbl00d
The right is TERRIFIED of trans people... They saw Bailey Jay in a meme, felt IT move and now they think every woman is potentially a transwoman. It terrified them that a transgirl made IT move a little... or they actually look at trans porn like Alex Jones... And it's their biggest go to for jokes and inciting fear and anger. I know several maga idiots personally and they think they're everywhere.
Psychobeanz
It's like fearing people who corrected a missing limb with a prosthetic, or fearing people who cured their infection with an antibiotic. Allowing trans people to be themselves is healing. And for anyone who thinks cis men will endure HRT and reassignment surgery to take what they want in women's bathrooms - I have news for you
ricbri695
I won’t disagree with any of that, the percentage was just wild to me - 20%, or 1 in 5 people - as in if you and your neighbors on both sides got together in a room, there’s be at least 1 or 2 trans people there. I guess math isn’t exactly our strong suit here in the US
HashMaster9k
Education definitely isn't, that's for sure.
sneakypoo
So the average american thinks that 1/3 of the entire population is crammed into New York City? I call bullshit on this chart.
DocBenny
you're surprised to learn that the average american is really, really fucking dumb?
ChainmailleAddict
Almost as dumb as the people who take the results of this study uncritically without looking at the absolute garbage way they gathered the information, via sliders online. People left the sliders at 50% and it skewed info towards the center.
Thorketil
Wrong! -
"Methodology: This article includes findings from two U.S. News surveys conducted by YouGov on two nationally representative samples of 1,000 U.S. adult citizens interviewed online from January 14-20, 2022." -
https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/41556-americans-misestimate-small-subgroups-population
ChainmailleAddict
The survey was conducted online, and it was conducted using either sliders or a box where people could input a percentage. Either way, people clearly got lazy. You're chasing me down over this? Why are you defending this obviously-garbage study?
Thorketil
"Interview." - Where did you get the sliders from?
Tumescentpie
I was more taken aback by only 3% identifying as atheist. I'm guessing agnostics don't count or something.
3Davideo
Why do you think one of the more pervasive arguments against a straight popular vote is that politicians could just jet between Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York City and get enough votes to win that way? In reality, the top, oh, 100 most populous cities in the US combined only make up about 20% of the US's population, but the perception persists.
wadatahmydamie
I love how all the people calling bullshit are proving correct just how reactionary and biased we are.
The sum total of every argument so far presented has been “Nuh uh.”
ChainmailleAddict
Ask someone over the phone what they think the amount of Native Americans there are is. It won't be 27%. And the fact that it IS 27% would tell you that for every person who got the percentage right (1%), there's one who estimated it at 54-55%. This is the most jarringly-obvious sign possible that this survey's information is not accurate.
wadatahmydamie
The issue with what you’re saying is that you didn’t do any of the legwork to support your hypothesis. They did. I’m not saying I’d bet my life on their accuracy or anything, but the last decade especially has been an object lesson in why we shouldn’t rely on ignorant populism as a valid rebuttal to data.
ChainmailleAddict
"Ignorant populism" as you guys completely accept, uncritically, the results of a bogus study? It was performed online. Want me to ask YouGov what the survey format was so this comments section will get their heads straight and understand data?
FatherNeal
Absolute bullshit. Either it’s entirely fabricated or they got their “estimated” column from polling one dude from Alabama with more teeth than IQ points and not many teeth. Americans are dumb, but not dumb enough to think 1 in 5 people is trans and like 150 million people are military and a third of the country lives in New York.
pareidoliaperson
No its 20% gay, 21% trans, 21% muslims, 420% illegals and 40% titanium shiney ass!
arajad
Well, I'm pretty sure the average American thinks NYC is the world's largest city, when it's not even the largest in North America.
Shewy92
Google literally had an uptick of searches on Election Day asking if Biden was still in the presidential race. 45% of women voted for a convicted felon and rapist, and Latinos avoted for a racist.
This chart doesn't surprise me at all.
PapaSez
Dismissing and ignoring facts when they're presented to you is how America got fucked to begin with. Not sure that's the best forward for you, m'friend
authorcalebchapman
TurdBurglar3000
Have you ever met an American?
JustSeinfeldQuotes
I call bullshit on this entire article. It's like they interviewed everyone in an extremely closed off community in New York City. Like a Jewish Bi-Racial Transgendered Republican Automobile Club.
GoddamnitClown
This data looks like garbage.
seenunseen
And that true amount of houshold income above 1 mil is zero! Fucking famous actors are above 1 mil. Anderson cooper is above 1 mil a year. No fucking way it can be zero
AnimusRex
This is the dumb American lmao
chaoticbear1
"rounded to the nearest whole percent" - so less than 0.5%.
Skevoid
How many entries do you see that aren't listed as whole numbers?
dovahdesign
It is not 0, but it's less than 1%. There is a difference between earning $1M per year and having a *net worth* over 1M. Going off of an estimate of 258.3M adults (18+) in the US, it means 1% = 2,583,000 individuals. Assuming, like the graph shows, 51% of the population is married and using 2 incomes, the real number of individual adults making 1M is lower, since this is showing combined household income. Let's pretend it's only 49% - 1,265,670. Do you think there are 1,265,670 Anderson Coopers?
Madalchemist2018
That's why the EC is so important cause 3/4 of the rest live in LA. /s
nobodyspecial995
You would be surprised. I was told once that new York City was so big it was basically the whole state, and that there was no empty space between all the suburbs it had absorbed.
idownvoteplottwist
that's Los Angeles
3Davideo
"No empty space between the suburbs it had absorbed" is actually a very good description of the *Los Angeles* Greater Metropolitan area:
IDontKnowWhatToDoAnymoreAndImTired
As someone living in upstate New York, I can say that a lot of people not from here seem to believe exactly that, as if the rest of the state were just a hat for NYC. Most people, if they think about "New York" outside of NYC, are thinking the lower Hudson river valley or Long Island. Maybe occasionally Buffalo.
Psychobeanz
I'm from just outside Albany, and when I went abroad (Italy/Spain) and told people I met that I was from New York, USA, they immediately assumed NYC and asked about it
FBISurveillanceTeam
I believe that one than the 47% are republican. I think 40% vote consistent, but not identify as. Data feels skewed on several.
wadatahmydamie
There are more registered Democrats than Republicans
cadesama
The important point is that people have absolutely shit intuitions for large numbers. We probably can't even estimate how many people we see in a day accurately, but we still make population level laws based on intuition. The media should spend much much more time on statistical literacy for themselves (because they suck) and for the populace.
Disembowleeh
I like that a third live in NYC, a third live in Texas, and a third live in California.
ChainmailleAddict
That's because they got the results for this survey using sliders instead of asking people vocally.
Thorketil
Wrong! -
"Methodology: This article includes findings from two U.S. News surveys conducted by YouGov on two nationally representative samples of 1,000 U.S. adult citizens interviewed online from January 14-20, 2022." -
https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/41556-americans-misestimate-small-subgroups-population
ChainmailleAddict
The survey was conducted online, and it was conducted using either sliders or a box where people could input a percentage. Either way, people clearly got lazy. You're chasing me down over this? Why are you defending this obviously-garbage study?
Thorketil
"Interview." - Where did you get the sliders from?
LeSethX
I've been thinking of that lately, because if the 3 were combined into 1 state, it would be a power imbalance similar to how Ontario is almost 40% of all Canadians... but even then the NYTXCA superstate would be smaller percentage wise
GWJYonder
This is what the groups explanation means when they say:
> This can facilitate misestimation in surveys, such as ours, which don’t require people to make tradeoffs by constraining the sum of group proportions within a certain category to 100%.
If the survey had phrased those three questions together in a way that made the relationship between them obvious to the survey taker, then the survey taker would have done another round of thinking. For example it wouldn't surprise me if adding in 1/
GWJYonder
"How many Americans live in Florida" would have led the average respondent to divvy up 120% of the nation, which they wouldn't have done in other formats of the question. However doing it like this shows just how inaccurate and impossible most people's initial mental map is, unless they are forced to restructure it with additional information.
Tenugui
As a nation we are 27% Muslim, 30% Jewish, 33% Atheist, 60% Christian, and 100% bad at statistics.
Disembowleeh
You are absolutely correct, but the first place my mind went was a barren wasteland with naught but these three concentrated populations... which would then turn into a three way contest (StarCraft style) between pizza, chili, and fusion food accompanied by shitty IPAs.
I would watch that show.
spacecowboyein
Also only 3% of Americans are atheist? Called the whole chart into question for me
authorcalebchapman
Here’s a statistic on atheism that’ll really fuck with you - atheists, as a group, perceive religious people as inherently more moral than atheists.
ThanatosElNyx
I suspect that a lot of atheists don't call themselves that. Also a lot of people think it means "belief that there's no god", which isn't a position most atheists would take.
spacecowboyein
Yeah I would technically consider myself agnostic, but this chart doesn't make that distinction.
ChainmailleAddict
The chart IS bullshit. The information was gathered online via sliders and plenty of people left it at 50%, enough to skew the information. This study is garbage and should be thrown out. People are stupid but not THAT stupid.
jiujoujitsu
source? how do you know it was sliders? how do you know how many people left it at 50%? how do you know it was set to default 50%? how do you know it was at all set to any default value?
Nothing in the source sais anything about that.
Do you really know all of these or just assume so you do not have to face something you do not want to belive?
Senderoth
They definitely are. While not 20% I've definitely seen people say 5-10 percent trans, or like 30% for lgbt.
ChainmailleAddict
Alright then, how about the 27% Native American number? Do you REALLY think there's enough people saying 50%+ of the population is Native American for every person who got it right?
The survey is garbage dude. The real stupidity comes from people who uncritically accept the results of this survey without considering why there might be such a difference.
Senderoth
I'm not saying the numbers are entirely accurate, as others pointed out it was done in a fault way. But don't think its "entirely garbage" either. And the question is only the accuracy of exact numbers, not whether or not people guess this information incorrectly, because they assuredly do.
Thorketil
WhiteBoyWhoLovesHommus
Yeah this poll definitely doesn’t check out there’s no way people think this
RevolutionOnHerLips
I sometimes bring up that most americans don't know a trans person, and some well-meaning person will suggest we do and just don't see them (closeted, passing, whatever), and I give up trying to explain what a small percentage of the population we actually are.
Froggie243
These studies/polls always feel so wack to me. I've met at least 10 and I'm only 30 and they've been scattered around through all parts of my life and I wasn't even trying. I just existed. I wouldn't have said 20%, but I might have said 5%.
CoeurFranc
Their persecution of trans people is even worse with this number.
memedrift2410
That's absolutely true, but on the other side of that is us on the left. We spent millions of dollars on ads so that one trans girl could play field hockey in Wisconsin despite all data showing that it was unpopular among voters. Stuff like this might have cost us the election. It was the right thing to do, but it's going to end with are rights being taken away because we're not willing to play by the new rules. Does feeling righteous feel better than winning? Because that's what we're doing.
CoeurFranc
But it’s certainly not the main reason for the lost.
BlackHoleSon01
Yes, every fifth person I pass on the street here in East Bumfuck, Texas is one of them trans trying to trick me into having freaky sex. My youth minister told me all about it.
ArgentXero
It's the same as people complaining about so much crime happening. They are being told it's in this place, and then this place says its in another place and that another place is saying it's somewhere else. It doesn't exist but people assume it's everywhere because that's what they're told. They'll say trans women in sports is an epidemic when one succeeds while the others who mightve participated failed, or don't even do sports at all. It's complete hysteria.
georgejimmydoodle
It's covered so heavily on their christiofascist media, that they are convinced that there must be millions of trans people.
Hextator
i'm tired of having so many difficulty sliders maxed out for this shitty playthrough of life already, never mind that there are so few other people to commiserate with
TheRedBaron8
What it is actually less than 1%it is like 0.6% but represented as a rounding error for graphical representation.
nevergoingtogiveyouupnevergoingtoletyoudown
Kinda makes you wonder how worthless the survey is.
anobviousthrowawayaccountduh
I’m surprised it would be that low in reality, but I’m sure my perception is skewed by the kind of content I consume. YouTube, Imgur, twitch, and all the comment sections in each seem to over represent that segment of the population.
Froggie243
The polls can also underrepresent. It's easy for people to not be able to answer honestly or under duress.
Yeld69
People on the left want to beleive there are tons of trans people to bolster their arguments. People on the right want to pretend like there are tons of them to bolster their arguments. This is a barometer of how coked up on propaganda (regardless of which) people in the US are.
bluerazzgummy
I wouldn’t even call that the top 5 stupidest assumption in this graph
Shadowkrieger
This is where I see this report was only done using republicans. Cause no one believes there is that many, except them.
TheRedBaron8
And yes this is the issues the right have hung their hat on the ensure that the rest of the bigots ensure that they are going to vote to make sure that the imaginative 20%+ of those weirdos knows their place in this world. Thank god for the GOP/sarcasm for that last part.
BeaverOnFire
It's because of all the democratic mandatory sexual reassignment surgeries at school! /s
cadesama
That's the media bias in action and the rescaling. Sure, someone may never have met anyone transgender, but the news talks about them all.the.time. so maybe they all live in them librul cities or something?
BabyWitchErika
That makes it worst no? They don't want to kill 1% of america, they are legit ready to kill 20% of them.
Arbitrarynamehere
I think it might be something like "I wouldn't be hearing about this 'problem' if it was only 1% of the population, they must be everywhere" for them
ObliviousJ
Its because they stand out. It's like buying a Hyundai sonata, you don't notice one on the road until you own one. News screams about them, so they see them everywhere.
TrumpRapesChildren
GASP!! So I'm part of a 1% somewhere? *Excited trans noises* *remembers their plans to have us executed* *sad trans noises*
WeTheI
sand trans noises? you should see a mechanic! /s
We're in the 1% of abjectly terrified
TrumpRapesChildren
It's why I'm thankful I have an escape coming January 9th.
WeTheI
mine is coming before May so there's a little hope.
ArcaneEyes
Well yes, but they also perceive it as a huge problem, when it's actually a very small problem.
BabyWitchErika
Fuck you. Trans are not a problem.
ArcaneEyes
I meant from their point of view, sorry i did not make that more obvious. I know ya'll are going through a lot and i promise you i have only the friendliest of intentions.
BabyWitchErika
It's fair. But i still had to be clear.
ShrokNil
Don't think they meant it like that.
ArcaneEyes
I did not, but i worked it badly. That's ok, they have a lot of people out for them, i can understand the reaction.
AllTheGoodOnesWereGone
I don’t have any intuition for the trans population, but 3% gay seems awfully low. Thought that was closer to 9-10%.
FoxPesdassi
I thought it was much LOWER than 1%, myself. That Republicans were throwing a fit over a tiny sliver of the population solely for political theater.
agonarch
Globally it's about 5%
SwagicalYololord
I would definitely agree. Objectively counting various groups of people that I know, it comes out to about 10% in each group.
tropicanajones2
I suspect it’s actually higher. Kind of like how the left handed population got bigger after they stopped being beaten. But certainly still low.
MissMittens
I thought so as well. I remember it not being double digits but certainly higher than 1%. That's before including gender-queer folks.
OnlyWantToSayOneThing
Yea, trans numbers are closer to 2% but the type of reporting could be at issue. (As well as rounding down or up) "Self reporting" would be lower number but also "people who have undergone trans bottom surgery" vs "trans people who have changed genders on their legal docs" vs "trans people who are on HRT but have not changed their legal status." There's definitely a question on what counts as trans however the difference is a rounding error. 2%, IMHO, is a better number for reality
neithermenoryou
Absolutely, but there's a pretty significant difference between 1:1000 people being trans, and 1:200 people.
The current best estimates are at about 2% of the population, based on anonymous surveys where people can be honest without the fear of repercussions, but naturally that might go up or down further as education on the topic improves.
Thorketil
I think so too. The number of gay people has also increased since it's no longer quite as dangerous to come out.
ChainmailleAddict
THIS STUDY IS GARBAGE! They got the information by giving people surveys through sliders. Which is to say, a lot of people got lazy and left the sliders at 50%. The way they gathered the information is garbage so the information is garbage.
Rawrgunnaeatyou
Ill chime in that any surveys I've taken through them, they take criticism and most have a "answer this "x" to verify your are reading these". Not great, but at least they are trying in comparison to other surveys I've participated in. But yea, keeping in mind the issues with these surveys is a good practice in mindfulness.
neithermenoryou
How do you know the sliders are by default at 50%? The sponsored surveys I partake in (not on YouGov but still) have all sliders default to either "No Answer", "Don't know" or something like that, never on a "valid" value.
ChainmailleAddict
I'm not certain if they were at 50% by default, but people had to put in some answer to proceed and plenty of people will just mark the sliders at around the midpoint to move on as quickly as possible. Seeing as how it's patently absurd for the average person to believe 27% of people are Native Americans, clearly something went wrong.
MissMittens
Thank you 😊
cambam3000
I think it's strange you're assuming they used sliders starting at 50%, since that's not specified in the methodology. Don't get me wrong I agree that they MAY have done so, but I'm just confused about why you're so certain
ChainmailleAddict
That's how online studies are conducted, either with sliders or with a box where they type a percentage. Since there's such a strong center bias, clearly something went wrong. I also found a source at some point but I can't find it now.
Thorketil
Wrong! -
"Methodology: This article includes findings from two U.S. News surveys conducted by YouGov on two nationally representative samples of 1,000 U.S. adult citizens interviewed online from January 14-20, 2022." -
https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/41556-americans-misestimate-small-subgroups-population
ChainmailleAddict
What are you smoking? That's literally the answer I gave. The survey was conducted online, and it was conducted using either sliders or a box where people could input a percentage. Either way, people clearly got lazy.
Thorketil
"Interview." - Where did you get the sliders from?
ChainmailleAddict
That's the way "online" surveys are conducted where they're asked to define a percentage between 1 and 100%.
alcaray
Yeah. No way 50% of people read a book. 50% of people claimed they read a book on a survey.
Thorketil
Source?
ChainmailleAddict
From the linked article: "Methodology: This article includes findings from two U.S. News surveys conducted by YouGov on two nationally representative samples of 1,000 U.S. adult citizens interviewed online from January 14-20, 2022. "
Thorketil
"Interview." - Where did you get the sliders from?
ChainmailleAddict
I can't find the source anymore but even without it, that's the way "online" surveys are conducted where they're asked to define a percentage between 1 and 100%.