Blinking Dragon (what recent protests by Chinese pensioners, that balloon and top-rated Chinese crime shows tell us about the state of the CCP in early 2023)

On February 15th, 2023, hundreds of old people took to the streets of the north-eastern Chinese port of Dalian. While elderly, they were doing something not often seen in China and noticeable EVERY TIME it happens- they were protesting.

They apparently chanted slogans like ‘down with the reactionary government’, and smiled as they sung ‘The Internationale’, the old anthem of the global revolutionary movement. A week previous to this a similar protest had been held in Wuhan, in central China, again by mostly elderly residents. Let’s be honest- this is not something you see everyday. The last protests in China had been last years anti-lockdown demonstrations but these were very different. The older generations tend to NOT be militant.

It begs the question- why were they protesting? And what has this got to do with increased tensions between China and America? Turns out a lot. Got 15 minutes? I will try and explain what a bunch of experts are saying (with sources for each of them) so you can make up your own damn mind about it. Just got 30 seconds? Scroll down and a TL;DR is below the picture of the cat for a summery.

Most Viral Edit: Thank you UserSub for the support. I am deeply humbled.

The simple reason for these protests? The Chinese government changed an aspect of the health care system. China is trying desperately to cope with the full costs of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic; the zero-Covid policy of the CCP, so the mass testings, centralised quarantines, rolling lockdowns, and all that jazz, it cost a lot. China’s health care system has been strained to the max by the pressures caused by this, and as such, the system is basically underfunded.

Some journalists claim sources close to the matter say there have been shortfalls in the state-run health insurance fund for a while and as such this has forced local authorities to make some changes to way the health care system is paid for. These changes triggered the protests… https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/02/21/asia-pacific/china-elderly-medical-insurance-protest/

To cover the shortfall in health monies, regional and local governments in China have turned to something called ‘personal spending accounts’ (PSA’s), which are mandatory savings accounts financed by employers and workers, and which are managed by the local health authority. These PSA’s would allow Chinese citizens to pay for doctors visits and medication, that kind of thing. It also meant that if your PSA was low, or empty, you would have to fund health care visits a different way. And there has been an increase in the numbers how don’t have adequate PSA’s. Especially amidst the elderly.

So local officials are tweaking the system. In Wuhan and Dalian, but also in dozens of other cities, local authorities have began transferring large parts of PSA contributions into a centralised state-controlled insurance fund specifically for outpatients. This means the pool of unspent PSA’s is now available for everyone. Of course, they have marketed this for its positive benefits, claiming it will mean people without money in their PSA will now be able to get free doctors visits…
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-protests-elderly-retirees-medical-benefits-cuts-rcna71142

But that’s what’s triggered the angry pensioners. These are the folks who had unspent PSA’s. The protestors say the new system basically means their personal insurance PSA is now being diminished without any consultation. Basically, they are protesting because they feel they are being stolen from. That their PSA money, nice and banked up as they have not been sick and not needed to use it, is now being depleted to fund others. They are, justifiably, angry.

Now, it seems as if the protests while spirited, are localised and above all, _seem_ based upon a very simple preposition- China needs to cover some issues it has with its health care funding, and overall, this movement of PSA funds is actually a fairly decent way to do so and provide coverage for all it’s citizens. And these protestors, they are hardly champions of individual liberty and ‘mah freedom’ here, as they were singing the anthem of the international socialist revolutionary movement as they protested, many are veterans of the People’s Liberation Army, so they could well be fully supportive of the changes if someone explained it to them. But really these protests are not actually ABOUT health care, but about the way they were introduced.

Proof? Well, if you think about it, the issues with Chinese healthcare are things the Chinese use to be open about. As recently as 2011 you had CCP officials being very open about the problems with their healthcare systems, going so far as to see CCP affiliated academics openly publishing in American Medical Journals, with clear acknowledgments of the mistakes they had made, the impact of the ORIGINAL Covid epidemic (SARS-Cov-1 not todays SARS-Cov-2 virus), and their plans to have something decent in place for 2020… proof? Sure… https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118747/

And China was making slow progress towards their goals, as was being seen by health professionals everywhere. https://www.bmj.com/content/365/bmj.l2349 But then came the Pandemic. And now? China isn’t officially saying their health system is underfunded. The CCP is doing its usual Han Solo in Star Wars routine ‘We’re fine, everything’s fine…’ routine. The impression we get is that these pensioners were not aware the funding for their health system is in trouble and that the authorities drastically need to reform it. Hence why this sudden change in policy has caused a reaction from some along the lines of ‘What??’

One director of a Shanghai based health consultancy summed up the issue simply- the local authorities should have just informed the public of the issues it was facing. But they didn’t. “It should also take into account how much the public can understand and tolerate the reform”. https://on.ft.com/3m9Pzh0

The problem we are seeing here is one of communication.

The great big centralised autocratic political entity called the Chinese Communist Party, simply not explaining to their people what they are doing, or just acting without considering the implications upon normal citizens, and this is sparking upset.

Let’s me honest- that last sentence? It’s hardly news is it? It’s not surprising at all. We just saw that throughout the last years Zero-Covid policy. Yet, there is reason to believe that actually these protests are a symptom of a much greater problem facing the CCP in early 2023.

It appears that China is having an ongoing communications problem. A big communications problem.
And it’s one that possibly seems about to become much worse.

China has, both for good and for very bad, presented a face of steady professionalism over the last few decades has it not? However you felt about China, if you liked the CCP (big hi to the Chinese trolls out there) or loath the heck out of them, there was no refuting the growth of China as a power, it’s increasing influence in matters economic, geopolitical and diplomatic. It has at felt like a unstoppable force at times.

While Western democracies are glorious in our mistakes, our internal objections, and our political disasters, China has been seemingly and effortlessly growing to an agenda.

You could argue it began all the way back with the publication of ‘The Three Represents’ in 2002 (https://imgur.com/gallery/rj8hnzN 19 links explaining that), through to Xi’ ‘Chinese Dream’ (2013), former Premier Li’s ‘Made in China 2025’ (2015) (https://imgur.com/gallery/pdCsSOQ 5 additional links explaining that) plan and more. A steady, unstoppable growth, coupled with a solid and united CCP. It’s why they have been able to face down everything- no matter how many are arrested, no matter how many die, the CCP acts with a brutal professionalism. Like a tough Chinese dragon, seemingly uncaring of minor issues.

But the CCP’s normally well oiled political machine appears to be stuttering at the moment. Mistakes are being made- and China prides itself on not making mistakes. And WHY it is making mistakes is the source of much debate.

There are basically two schools of thought about what is happening in the CCP in 2023… and rather than tell you the one I favour (as tbh I don’t favour either as I don’t know), I’m going to go over both and allow you make up your own mind.

*What’s going on in the CCP at the moment school of thought 1: The China Hawks Theory*

This one is advocated by those who are somewhat down on China or who are convinced China is doomed (so, including the likes of the charismatic Peter Zeihan). To them, what we are seeing is the natural by-product of Xi taking control of the CCP apparatus. That under his centralised leadership, the normally efficient and highly succesful mechanisms of state are suffering from confusion.

The proof of that? That’s to be found in the whole recent balloon debacle.

So, now a few weeks have passed and time has moved on, and the near-hysteric coverage by US media is over, we can begin to see the whole balloon debacle in the cold light of day. So what do we now KNOW happened (no speculation, just demonstrable facts from here on in). Since 2017 the Chinese have been using high altitude balloons to supplement satellite surveillance of other states (aka what we do but without the balloons). The reports claim that at first the US did not know what the balloons were (what the DoD called an ‘awareness gap’), but that in 2023 they discovered similar balloons had flown over Guam, Japan, and Texas & Florida. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-failed-detect-past-chinese-spy-balloons-over-united-states-us-general-2023-02-06/

The balloon entered U.S. airspace off the coast of Alaska on the 28th of January, 2023, then moved across Alaska and Canada before reaching Idaho on the 31st. When it reached Montana it was seen by passengers in a passing domestic flight along with a retired editor from the Billings Gazette, who photographed it, thought it was a UFO or something, got others to photograph it, told the Federal Authorities, and then published the pictures. https://billingsgazette.com/news/gazettes-spy-balloon-photos-play-role-in-white-houses-response-to-china/article_b27cc99e-a4b1-11ed-b40a-07864ac915be.html

And THEN… everyone freaked out that it could see into nuclear missile installations (who would have probably done that thing they can do- magically closing the great big lids on the silos so you can’t see into them), before crossing into Missouri on the 3rd of February. The next day it was shot down over the waters of the Atlantic.

When the balloon was spotted immediately the cry went up that the US should shoot it down at once. But that was never gonna happen for two very obvious reasons. One, the system was massive- four times the size of a school bus. Yet it wasn’t just the fear of debris falling down upon residential areas that stayed America’s hand. According to the China Hawks, the reason America didn’t shoot it down over the continental United States was they wanted it to have a nice softer landing in the waters of the East Coast, which are nice and shallow, and retrieval is easier done.

So, this is what America did. And we can bet hard money that when it went splash, the NSA & Military Intelligence was down there like a flash (OK, the US Navy would retrieved it, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/6/us-navy-working-to-recover-debris-from-chinese-spy-balloon but the NSA would be the ones most excited by what they found), and right now they are having a field day going through the Chinese tech. In fact at least one Democratic politician said “The bottom line here is that shooting down the balloon over water wasn't just the safest option, but it was the one that maximized our intel gain” https://www.reuters.com/world/us/republicans-criticize-biden-waiting-shoot-down-chinese-balloon-2023-02-05/

With me so far? Cool. So, according to the China Hawks, what happens next is unimportant- the United States shooting down the other balloons (NONE of which according to President had anything to do with China https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/16/biden-objects-china-spy-balloon-surveillance but did cost the United States US$1.5 to shoot them down https://www.wsj.com/articles/pentagon-spent-at-least-1-5-million-on-missiles-to-down-three-high-altitude-objects-b358e522), was just the United States sending a signal to China along the lines of ‘Stop it because we have this covered’. No, to the China Hawks (ignoring the fun ‘Congrats! You shot a balloon’ jokes on SNL), what was important, crucial even, was what was going on away from the balloon.

You see there was supposed to be high level diplomatic talks about to take place. High level meetings between the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, and the Chinese. The first high level talks designed to cool down relations between China and the United States in a while. They were designed to start the slow process of trying to normalise relations- to get rid of the tensions between the two nations. And then the balloon thing happened. And not only were the talks called off, it INCREASED tensions between the two nations. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/02/03/blinken-postpones-china-trip-suspected-spy-balloon-detected-over-us/

To the China Hawks, this was indicative of Xi having removed everyone but loyalists from the higher echelons in the party. As I covered in some detail in my last post about the CCP three months ago (see here https://imgur.com/gallery/fDzWRuc) China is now run by Xi’s people. To the Hawk’s this means they are either men too terrified to speak out of turn or naysay the Core Leader, or men who try and curry favour by indulging his every whim.

To them, proof this was going on was seen in the way the Chinese foreign service was clearly surprised by the whole balloon incident. Normally well briefed foreign policy spokesmen were left saying it was just a weather balloon (when it wasn’t), refuting it was a surveillance balloon (when it was), and having to backtrack. In the words of one commentator- “Beijing’s response was shoddily improvised, confused, and risibly untrue. First came a rare statement of diplomatic regret, then denial that the balloon was anything other than an ordinary weather monitoring device”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/13/china-spy-balloon-us-response-biden-cold-war/

And with foreign policy and China- they NEVER like to backtrack. It goes against the principles of Zhou Enlai (the father of modern Chinese diplomacy and whose principles I wrote about 8 months ago here https://imgur.com/gallery/aFTQkZH with 26 sources).

For the China Hawks, that, that _alone_, was indicative of the left hand not knowing what the right hand was doing. That some loyal minion of Xi, or maybe even Xi himself, had ordered the balloon launch and no one briefed the foreign ministry. To them, this is indicative of deeper malaise in China right now.

How with no one around him to say ‘Er, boss, is that a good idea?’, China is now in the hands of one man who cannot see the big picture and as such mistakes like this are being seen, not just in sharing information over military balloon flights, but it’s to be found in terms of the economy, and domestic politics, as the nation lurches from mistake to mistake. Which brings us back to the protests by the pensioners in Wuhan.

The protests by the elderly in China then are simply another sign of the malaise in China. Along with the economy. And the mishandling of the Covid outbreak. That Xi’s CCP is actually causing all of the problems China is facing. At least according to the more articulate China Hawks. So that’s theory number 1…

*What’s going on in the CCP at the moment school of thought 2: The China Doves Theory*

The China Doves FYI do NOT support China, but they do not believe that it is hostile in their all dealings with everyone. To them the events around the balloon are very similar to how they are described above by the Hawk scenario. What changes from the above scanario is simply motive…

See to them, Xi has two priorities in 2023. The first is kick start the Chinese economy after the zero-Covid policy which was bruising and harsh economically and slowed growth drastically. Xi wants to open up his economy and get back to making money. This he can do mostly by himself. https://www.bofit.fi/en/monitoring/weekly/2022/vw202252_1/ But it isn’t enough. If China is going to get back to a fully working economic powerhouse, it NEEDS to normalise relations with the United States of America. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2023/01/04/a-roadmap-for-us-china-relations-in-2023/

It needs the Trump-era sanctions Biden has maintained, to be lifted. It needs to go back to the days of Obama or (even better) the early era of Trump being in charge- when China could trade happily and the mutual dependency of the Sino/US economy kept it ticking along. It probably won’t they feel, but it at least needs to try https://merics.org/en/merics-briefs/special-issue-peak-china-2023

Obviously, the second thing requires a LOT of work. But that was what led to the proposed meeting with Blinken. High level talks designed to start the slow process of descalating the heat; and there is more to it than just that. We have attempts at reconciliation going back to last January with China’s new ambassador to Australia talking about normalising relations with them as well https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-27/new-china-ambassador-wants-reset-diplomatic-relations-australia/100785202. China does appear to be trying to get back to the old status quo.

It is in this light that the balloon incident now takes a new, somewhat ominous, light. According to at least one of these China Doves, the reason why there was confusion in the Chinese foreign service, and why Xi has not commented about the balloon was that he _didn’t know_ it had been launched. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/10/china/china-balloon-xi-jinping-unaware-intl-hnk/index.html That under the guise of ‘standard military policy’ militant nationalist/anti-Western Hawks within the People’s Liberation Army had ordered the launch and didn’t tell a soul about it. Men who want there to be tension. Men who do not want reconciliation with the west.

We know these military officials exist. Every so often they pop their heads up to say something dumb and militant. For example we know that back in 2009 when the United States sold Taiwan a bunch of weapons, these hard-liners published an open letter calling upon China to sell all US Treasuries debt with the United States as retaliation. https://www.ft.com/content/b3f5e946-4441-11ea-9a2a-98980971c1ff

Luckily (for China) at the time a whole bunch of Chinese economists and bankers screamed ‘Are you fricken INSANE?’ at them and the idea was correctly thrown out as China cannot afford to cut all economic ties with the United States.

But these guys are out there. And according to the China Dove theory, these are the guys who sabotaged the proposed talks, and who left China looking dumb and reacting angrily and accusing the US of stuff, when it is clear China had scored the own goal.

Beyond this, it’s hard to say which theory is more terrifying. The Hawks has China being run by a dictator who doesn’t know what he is doing. The Dove theory ties into the idea I mentioned in one of my previous posts; that the CCP was now being stricken by new factions in the highest rungs of power and it wasn’t that Xi was being this big bad dictator; but that around him new factions are forming, new alliances were being made, new rivalries are being created and as such internal politics caused the communications breakdown.

And that what we are seeing is just that. Internal reindeer games being played out in China, with Xi and the CCP being made to look dumb.

So these are the two schools of thought on what is happening/has just happened in China.

Which one is correct?

We do not know. I certainly for one don’t. Which is why I mention both in detail and leave it there for you to make up your own minds about events. It could well be that both are partly correct or even that BOTH are happening at the same time.

Which would be somewhat terrifying if you think about it.

If BOTH were happening at the same time, what you have is a centralised leader, in whom all power is vested, and with no one around to naysay him with his whims; surrounded by cronies and yes men, all of whom are jockeying for position and power, like they are the court of some Chinese Emperor, with powerful nobles and mandarins all seeking to have their agendas pushed to the top so as to gain his blessing, but keeping secret from each other their schemes and plans, which in turn leads to the nation lunching onwards offering contradictory messages to the world.

The result? I think that was why the elderly were protesting. Confusion within the CCP. A failure to communicate due to conflicting signals. If such a thing was real you would see signs not just in health care policy, or how they respond to a balloon. You’d see it in other areas right?

I think a very eloquent proof of this conflicting signals can be found in the way China is lurching between differing positions on Ukraine. That the confusion as to what China wants and its relationship with Russia, could be indicative of factions are fighting for control of the nations narrative.

There are those who say ‘China just supports Russia’ but we know the relationship is way more complicated than that. In fact 8 months ago I was trying to make sense of signs of dissent within China and the ranks of the CCP towards continuing their support of Russia and said one of the possibilities for it could have been to create a narrative “…that maybe there is some diplomatic room to manoeuvre and that maybe they could tap China to fashion a ceasefire. This allows Xi act as a ‘peace negotiator’ and broker a peace between Ukraine and Russia. If Xi could do that, play the historic peacemaker, it allows him symbolically stand atop a building waving a national flag and screaming ‘Screw you guys” at any passing Americas. Not that anyone in the West WANTS China to be the peacemaker…”

And 8 months later, along comes China trying to be a historic peacemaker. (Wrote it as possibility 4- right down towards the end here https://imgur.com/gallery/aFTQkZH).

The Chinese came up with a peace proposal- well in fact it was a document with 11 principles on them that would allow peace to happen. https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html The principles are all well and good but considering the first principle (which is one which China has been championing for decades), is the idea that everyone should respect the sovereignty of every nation on Earth and China is NOT condemning Russia for refusing to respect the sovereignty of Ukraine kinda undermines the Chinese position. https://www.reuters.com/world/nato-eu-react-reservedly-chinese-ceasefire-proposal-ukraine-2023-02-24/

Added to this, the cat was left amidst the pigeons somewhat recently here by President Biden informing the world that US Intelligence had discovered that China was contemplating giving Russia non-lethal aid. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/19/china-may-be-on-brink-of-supplying-arms-to-russia-says-blinken Ever since Biden took over and the US President stopped treating his intelligence service as ‘the enemy’, US Intelligence has been on a roll lately. It is painfully clear that they have deeply infiltrated Putin’s regime and there is very little that could be discussed at the highest levels of Putin decision making process that the US isn’t aware off.

We see proof of that in the way the US calmly called out the invesion before it happened https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nikki-haley-slams-potential-gop-contenders-trump-and-george-w-bush-donor-retreat/, and the confidence they have in exposing the nonsense that Putin’s regime shenanigans https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/26/politics/us-intelligence-ukraine-russia/index.html. As such if someone in China was talking to Russia and saying ‘Hey, we will give you some extra support’, then based on what we have seen, it would be a leak within Putin’s regime that Biden was quoting from. (please note Biden has subsequently said he does not believe China HAS given Russia lethal aid; the above appears to be a successful ‘shot across the bows’)

Under the China Hawk school of thought, what we saw was clearly Xi seeking to build upon his relationship with Putin and cross the line to give more support to Putin. And that remains a possibility. I ain’t saying its not.

The OTHER option is that it is anti-Western hawks within the Chinese regime who are maybe talking about offering Russia ammunition or stuff, while at the same time another faction is trying to negotiate a peace treaty. Hence why we have the contradictory positions- one side offering a peace plan while another seems to be talking about helping Russia.

China’s critics are saying this is just double-dealing, saying the CCP are talking about peace while secretly aiding Russia, and that this is typical CCP double-talk and all that is happening is them being as deceitful as they have always been.

In many ways I HOPE this is the case. That’s the nice explanation. The alternative is worse.

The alternative is we have one group who want to help Russia in the upper echelons of the CCP and another who want the war to end. This idea that we are dealing with factions within China can be seen in more subtle stances which seem small, but as anyone who studies China would say ‘nothing is trivial’. But this can be explained away as China having to deal with Russia being too aggressive for them while being a partner in their anti-Western alliance they kinda have https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/limits-of-a-no-limits-partnership-china-russia

Once upon a time you could have said ‘China is keeping its options open’, but based on either the China Hawk OR the China Dove scanario, ‘China’ (aka the CCP), isn’t sure what it wants these days. So now at best we think that SOME in the CCP do not want China to go down that road. And some (based on US intelligence) clearly do.

In China, where everything happens behind closed doors, its harder to judge. Harder to grasp. Nothing seems real. But humans are humans and politics IS politics no matter what ideology you claims to follow, and as such the idea that there are no factions in the CCP seems absurd.

In the end *I* believe (and you can disagree with me and that’s fine, I ain’t invested personally in this, and I’m just saying what I see as I try and make sense of the world around me), is that the CCP is being driven by multiple factions all pulling apart from one another, with Xi being the only guy who can control them but HE is focused on just retaining power.

In fact he is TOTALLY focused on retaining power and making sure he can dispose of the factions if they annoy him in the future. Proof?

Xi is trying to shore up his support domestically. Using TV. See if you have been following my posts on China you will be aware that Xi has spent the last 10 years consolidating his rule via a powerful ‘anti-corruption’ campaign, that has seen many of the more powerful members of the CCP exposed for graft, corruption and greed.

Of course I am sure it’s only been a coincidence that the guys discovered being all corrupt where members of political factions that rivalled Xi.

Just a coincidence.

Honest.

Anyway, Xi has galvinised support for his anti-corruption campaign since he started it way back in 2013 via TV networks and prime time shows. Lot’s of prime time shows. In 2017 there was ‘In the Name of the People’ (above) a drama about the campaign against corrupt CCP members https://www.thechinastory.org/yearbooks/yearbook-2017/chapter-5-precarious-wealth-the-search-for-status-and-security/in-the-name-of-the-people/; in 2021 there was ‘Crime Crackdown’ that did the same https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1232424.shtml. Last year a five-part series called ‘Zero Tolerence’ which saw convicted CCP officials give on-screen confessions as they revealed their abuses of power.

Still, Zero Tolerence kinda backed fired. To an audience dealing with zero Covid restrictions the sense was that the men in that show appeared to be not really contrite and their sentences not really long enough. https://tfiglobalnews.com/2022/01/31/chinese-people-start-showing-zero-tolerance-towards-xi-jinpings-anti-corruption-policy/

Which is why we have now just seen ‘The Knockout’- a 39 episode long made-for-tv drama (above) about a fictional cop crusading to arrest a corrupt crime boss. It is a glamorous re working of the anti-corruption campiagn, an epic show covering a decades long battle between the criminal and the cop. https://radii.co/article/best-chinese-drama-2023-the-knockout

But where it differs from Hollywood style cop shows- the cop in question is NOT a maverick. He is a loyal Party man. He ALWAYS obeys orders. He ALWAYS works within the rules- a perfect hero for the CCP.

Still, The Knockout has been a ratings hit and its interesting as Xi is, despite having had this anti-corruption campaign going for a decade, is still pushing it.

Xi is not done purging. He has gone after a bevvy of officials linked to Football in China recently. https://hongkongfp.com/2023/02/18/corruption-scandal-deals-new-blow-to-xis-chinese-football-dream/ He is going after rivals (or possible rivals) in finance and business (such as Bao Fan https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/27/bao-fan-missing-chinese-billionaire-banker-assisting-investigation-company-china-renaissance-holdings-says and this has been a campaign that has been going on since 2015 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/27/bao-fan-missing-chinese-billionaire-banker-assisting-investigation-company-china-renaissance-holdings-says

(Can I just point out the internal anguish of finding myself going ‘Damn, Xi is arresting billionaire’s… which is bad right? Right?’)

Xi is shoring up control domestically. Like he has rivals everywhere. Only here is the thing… there is NO one to rival Xi. So why does he need the anti-corruption campiagn? Is it because he is, honest-to-goodness, a true champion of the People, ceaselessly working to end graft and corruption within thge upper echelons of the Chinese Communist party?

Or does this allow him arrest and purge those people he considers to be rivals, or possible rivals, or who may screw up in the future?

I will let you make up your own damn mind on that one.

The clampdown by Xi, however, is all encompassing. It’s not just the rich. Strikes are forbidden and Unions are banned- yes, thats right, in a communist country, supposedly run on socialist tendencies, China is more strict on trade Unions than Amazon could ever hope to be. https://survey.ituc-csi.org/China.html?lang=en#tabs-2 Mostly to prevent strikes crippling their ‘work them to they drop’ mentality. But the irony of it is not lost.

Meanwhile, the China Dove explanation seems to have additional evidence. As I type these words China is holding a parliamentary session, wherein the outgoing Premier Li has just rubber stamped Xi’s main priority for 2023- to rebuild the economy. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/5/china-sets-economic-growth-target-of-5-as-parliament-kicks-off
The desire to grow GDP by 5%; the need to reform and shore up the housing sector, an increase in defence spending, all of which suggests a somewhat nervous China.

But over the next few days as Li steps down and is replaced, Xi will also appoint a new bevvy of loyalists into key positions in the financial and economic sector- replacing the technocrats who had dominated with loyalists, and some feel Li’s speech is a last attempt to try and convince foreign investors that China is a good place to invest in. https://www.voanews.com/a/what-to-expect-at-china-s-annual-parliamentary-meeting-/6989511.html
& https://hongkongfp.com/2023/03/03/chinas-xi-jinping-to-formalise-third-term-brush-off-crises-at-annual-event/
& https://hongkongfp.com/2023/03/03/birth-rates-taiwan-dog-meat-and-sex-education-chinas-parliament-proposals/

And at the same time, you have the CCP sending officials to Taiwan to try and start to smooth relations with their neighbour, very quietly, very low key. There were small protests- but some in Taiwan ALSO clearly want to turn the heat down between the two nations and so the meetings were conducted behind closed doors. https://www.arabnews.com/node/2253431/world

China appears to be trying to build bridges with folks, and to walk back the tensions with neighbours and the world.

China also appears to be provoking America and others and is being provoked very easily in return.

And seems to be doing both at the same time.

And why it’s doing that seems to be…
Option A) They are liars and are not to be trusted.
Option B) The CCP is divided and as such differing factions are trying to push differing agendas within Xi’s broad direction.

And it could be both at the same time. And to this I will add a third option to just consider…

Option C) All of the above happened, but the cause of it all was simply incompetence. The balloon for example had not been intended to float over the United States, but had been blown off course. The reason there was confusion is because it wasn’t MEANT to do that. And the contradictory messages we are getting out of the CCP at the moment is Xi who is very good at controlling the CCP and China but is utterly useless at running foreign affairs, revealing this to be true. It’s all down to Xi simply not being any good in this area.

It does appear however, any way you cut it, that the ancient dragon of China, which use too stare at the world with a steely eyes, has started blinking…

…what the future promises does not bode well.

TLDR:
**China appears to be experiencing a rare moment of faltering and uncertainty in foreign and domestic policy; some say its because Xi has removed anyone who isn’t a loyalist and the new guys can’t run the country; some say its because factions have emerged around Xi and have started to send differing signals out; tbh it could be both.**

A link to my previous posts covering a range of stuff that I write about for anyone interested:
https://imgur.com/gallery/XqjpgW9

Hi. I’m an utter nobody. I post on Imgur because folks on Imgur tend to be kind and tolerate my long posts and I am deeply grateful. Imgur has opened doors for me and changed my life. I was asked to write a book because of it (I did it; it’s with the person who asked me to write it so its status is ‘pending’); I’ve started a podcast; I’ve kept sane when having to move country to look after family; this is down to the kindness of Imgur users. I post these long posts, trying to write stuff that others will find interesting and/or fun and/or thought provoking, as a way of showing my gratitude. If anyone thinks what I did is worth a cup of coffee, you can click this link and buy me a one (www.BuyMeACoffee.com/thefeck) but no worries if not. A kind word is worth a lot too. I hope you are well, and safe and healthy and loved. You deserve those things.
We all do.

have a good one Imgur.