siflandollysiflandollyshowROCK
17203
451
19
Jul 23, 2026 11:13 PM
siflandollysiflandollyshowROCK
17203
451
19
HolyFreakingToast
they are spending 180 billion capex this year
will this be another dark fiber moment in 3 years?
dark fiber gave us the internet we know today - would not have been possible without it
wucebrillis81
Actually they got a milestone at Wallstreet Beeing the first company with more spended more money than they gathered.
( This means that things going well , the other companies under their umbrella making the profits)
They own a record every day this week.
Next week the other tech corps making their numbers public.
KingKrabvoldIV
These assholes are hiding tens of billions of debt in offshore LLCs to keep their stock prices propped up. It’ll come home to roost soon, and we’ll have another dot.com bubble burst.
seir
additional context before you celebrate too much https://arstechnica.com/google/2026/07/google-just-had-its-first-negative-cash-flow-quarter-ever-due-to-massive-ai-spending/
SJBSavageInk
They'll declare bankruptcy before they admit they were wrong
HeresYourSauce
Looks like they were average around 20 billion before AI, so this dip represents 25 billion in loses.
They lost enough money this year on AI, that they could have funded the entirety of NASA for the year, or solved American homelessness (By many estimates for years.) Or I mean, we could just make a hallucination engine.
FckleberryFarms
https://www.jsnover.com/blog/2026/07/20/llm-models-are-bullshit-engines/
sentx
"Don't fuck with the food" yet Google decided to not just fuck up google.com but the search spider bots have been blocked by Cloudflare. Bloggers and other content creators flipped their shit when they found google was stealing traffic to their sites by showing it on google.com.
TheLiteraryMachine
GOOD. I'm ready for AI to sink them and all the other big tech companies.
ghostofGracchusBabeuf
Oops, it seems I made a sign error. There are -3 Rs in strawberry.
lifeisadadjoke
And a LOT of what is claimed to be AI is just internet connectivity, however, that's become ridiculous too.
FermentTheRich3000
First level AI doesn't exist. It's just big sets of algorithms.
ByThePowerOfSCIENCE
that's like saying that a CPU is just transistors
FermentTheRich3000
AI can apply learned data to different types of tasks without intervention. Right now it's just a more advanced Google search.
ByThePowerOfSCIENCE
sorry, this just shows that you haven't used a chatbot - when I upload my original code and it finds bugs like uncovered cases and produces an improved version, then comments on the broader problem I'm trying to solve and how to expand on it, that's not a "Google search"
I have a new Android app in development entirely from interactions Gemini
Yasashii93
Well, I really needed something to make me smile today. Thank you.
LeifHietala
Good. It's about time they felt some kind of pain for all the harm they're causing.
Thojira
on one hand they can't let their competitors have a possibility of getting ahead and win a possible massive jackpot, on the other hand ... we all know this is a terrible idea and they are doing it really wrong.
Metlahaed
That’s not “getting wrecked” they are strategically spending on purpose, it might lead to getting wrecked but this was also the same quarter they reported record profits.
NotAllowedToArgueUnlessYouPay
giving the AI cumbersome queries is becoming something of a hobby. What's a few teraflops between friends?
siflandollysiflandollyshowROCK
Well also what’s a couple thousand gallons of destroyed water between friends? Don’t do that. Don’t use it at all.
ByThePowerOfSCIENCE
Dunning and Kruger wrote about this.
Negative cash flow isn't loss. If I buy a hot dog cart, cash goes down and capital goes up. My net present value might actually go up if the expected earnings from my new asset are more than what I paid for it.
Something1Said
We do know this money is lost, though. It isn't lost because the graph went down, it's lost because it's being metaphorically set on fire, invested into a bad product.
ByThePowerOfSCIENCE
GOOG is up 65% from 1 y ago, outperforming NASDAQ by a factor of 3.3
whether a product is good or bad has nothing to do with how we feel about it
Something1Said
The product is bad essentially. It's a beta for a thing that will not manifest. What about this AI investment do you expect to return?
ByThePowerOfSCIENCE
Is it though? As a coding agent it's helped me lots, and tbh it's a bit humbling at times when it spots oversights in my code.
Something1Said
It is, yeah, because you don't pay for that coding agent fully. No one does. No one will. That agent cost more to make and maintain than they can possibly make back. $10tn in data centers, how are they making that back?
notmyrealface
Corprotism should be banned. It's a synonym for fascism and it's literally destroying the world we live on to enrich a tiny few.
blueipDriver
Google: "We spared no expense"
https://media0.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPWE1NzM3M2U1YnZhcjFsMmY4Z2ttY29ueXpwb2doOHVsdjlmYTAzazE0bnZzcm1ibiZlcD12MV9naWZzX3NlYXJjaCZjdD1n/wSSooF0fJM97W/200w.webp
whitey211
There's an obvious solution to this... GO EVEN HARDER INTO AI! That's right; double, NO, TRIPLE the investment. AI is the obvious future everyone wants!
TsubakiTragic
I've been battling Ai for about 3 weeks about how to process images from my camera. Ai-chan's suggestions were so "good" I had to restore my production partition twice because my system was totally screwed by these suggestions. In the end I screamed "why can't I just do xxx?" Ai-chan replied "Well yeah, that's the quick easy way, if that's what you want."
We are safe... Skynet is not in the foreseeable future.
Grimmrog
Dunno i am sure its capavle of launcjing nukes left and right, maybe not making its own terminators, but the wipe out thibgy, that it might do quite well.
hwatL4bloopy
I think a lot of the AI goes out of the way to burn tokens to increase income on paid accounts.
elgalileo
Skynet as an autonomous evil entity bend on killing humans ? Sure we are safe. Now the danger is "half baked auto-killing programs linked to ballistic weapons confuse an air balloon with a nuclear attack"
purpledd
We are definitely not safe. It'll just be incompetent AI murdering us. https://www.972mag.com/lavender-ai-israeli-army-gaza/ https">my-gaza/">https://www.972mag.com/lavender-ai-israeli-army-gaza/ https://www.darpa.mil/news/2026/darpa-us-air-force-fly-ai-controlled-f-16
HolyFreakingToast
they are spending 180 billion capex this year
will this be another dark fiber moment in 3 years?
dark fiber gave us the internet we know today - would not have been possible without it
tamanostre
Gemini is free, definitely don't use it as much as possible to make this number even lower
ByThePowerOfSCIENCE
Gemini web is free, and there's a free tier for the API that's only good for development. But to actually use it in a product you have to pay for your tokens.
Chooseausernameandyoureallset
That's not getting rekt. If you have a paycheck of $300, $500k in the nepo baby bank, and spend $320, that's negative cash flow.
LurkingSarcasm
Lol I found their current financial advisor!
honeybadgersRus
He's correct, you don't understand.
Chooseausernameandyoureallset
And all I needed to do was post a simple explanation
Chooseausernameandyoureallset
https://companiesmarketcap.com/alphabet-google/cash-on-hand/ Almost $127 billion cash on hand. They can burn cash for quite a while before running into any sort of problems.
PhailRaptor
Just like people trying to lose weight, looking at any single weigh-in is counter-productive. You have to wait for the trend to establish itself over several data points before you can derive any meaning from it.
This is the first data point.
khora
Google is fine. They own a lot of infrastructure the others use. Also they are the largest owner of Anthropic.
PhailRaptor
We'll see if things stay that way
HeresYourSauce
Wonder how cheap ram and storage is gonna be after this crashes.
I doubt AI will go away for ever, but wow if even google can't make money from it. Things are not looking good for it.
ExTechOp
Sweet summer child, you think prices would fall after the inevitable crash of all IT?
HeresYourSauce
In general they've fallen after other IT crashes. This crash will only AI servers, not all of IT.
They fell quite a lot after mining, and again after covid. After AI, when the companies cancel all their contracts. I'm sure the price will fall. Just maybe not to the point it really should be.
ExTechOp
The thing is, the memory dearth is not because the AI companies have brought all the memories, it is because they've pre-brought all the build capacity of the companies making the memories.
HeresYourSauce
That's why I said cancel the contracts.
It will take a pretty major bubble burst to free up that production capacity, and for companies to buy their way out of contracts, but AI has not proven profitable for anyone at scale yet.
cesarser4
It probably won’t be post covid prices again.
jqubed
Everybody knows it’s going to crash at some point. The hyperscalers seem to think there will be one or two main players at the end of this, and they’re all in on trying to be the ones that survive. Some of the big names are going way up the supply chain, almost to raw materials and buying entire factories’ capacity at a premium to make sure their equipment can get built. If it goes long enough factory capacity will increase. Maybe prices will be even lower than before when it’s over.
HeresYourSauce
My take is that the large scale AI will be the ones that die. That the market will have maybe a hundred tiny niches for situational applications.
Some of the large scale ones might be able to take a few of those, but the better play is to wait until the bubble pops, then swoop in and buy up the companies who did find a way to make a profit.
NKato
I think AI will be more successful as a local model, especially if they can make it more user friendly to customize and use. Currently it's still too technically challenging to get under the hood with for the average person to set up a local-running model.
OmNachoMama
I can only hope so. I work in tech sales for an OEM/ODM. Trying to build custom servers that triple in price every 3 weeks, and for which parts are back ordered 26 weeks, is a problem likely to become an existential crisis for some companies.
LivingDecomposition
Google kills a ton of products all the time
Einbrecher
The only industry where AI is actually profitable is software development, largely because we haven't trusted human devs for decades and already have tons of tools/procedures/etc. to check/validate code, all of which works just as well on AI output. So it's plug and play and very effective there. Unfortunately for Google, Anthropic already has that market cornered, OpenAI is a close second, and I'm pretty sure Grok, Kimi, and Qwen are all ahead of Gemini even.
Einbrecher
Nobody has been able to make "general purpose AI" profitable, partly because nobody actually needs it enough to justify paying for it, partly because it still makes mistakes, and partly because open-source models that run on even a halfway decent desktop are already good enough for most folks who have a use for it.
coughingintensifies
Aye. Maybe something that, fir instance, took care of my inbox for me could be nice, but it would have to be perfect. I still wouldn’t pay a single dime for it, because right now I’m not reading my e-mail for free.
usernameusedinlessplatforms2
GPU's as well.
Hopefully soon, should update my rig.
JaimeLannistersRightHand
I'm hoping for it so I can afford a decent computer.. Fuck these AI cunts with a sharp, rusty spoon.
Zyrixion
I mean, when the bubble pops it's going to break the entire economy's back. That said, suddenly, zettabytes of ddr4/5 will become available as companies rush to try to recoup their losses because they're over $2.4 trillion dollars in the red. And all of it will be worthless because the world simply has no use for all that RAM and computer components all at once, or the data centers themselves.
HeresYourSauce
I would be surprised if it did much to the economy. (I wouldn't be surprised if the people setting the prices used it as an excuse.)
The companies spending obscene amounts in AI can generally afford it. I mean look at google. If this chart is to be believed they should have at least a hundred billion saved up. It'll take them decades of current spending to run out of capital, and the bubble will have burst long before that.
Zyrixion
So, here's the problem. All of the companies that are spending on AI absolutely cannot afford it, and the near entirety of it is debt spending. The sector is just about THREE TRILLION dollars in debt between balance sheet debt and in future commitments, and AI has absolutely zero profitability. Which means that there will be a THREE TRILLION debt called in across the sector at some point when the investments dry up, and just to note, the 2008 crash's insolvent debt was half the size of this.
HeresYourSauce
Curious where you're getting the three trillion number from. I can't find it.
Goldman Sachs estimates under 500 billion this year, and under a trillion overall. And the highest number I can (quickly find on my phone) is 1.65 trillion total debt.
In any case the debt is owned by multitrillion dollar companies. 3 trillion is the networth of one of them. Spread across a rich industry that debt to income ratio is very reasonable. In 2008 it was much smaller companies and often individuals.
Something1Said
I can't wait for all of that cheap RAM so I can play Cyberpunk 2077 with my one daily hour of rationed electricity.
Cataleast
Additionally, the RAM used in servers is incompatible with consumer-grade systems, so most of it will be basically scrap.
Darkwell
Time to buy a server for 11 dollars is what I'm hearing.
Hrafna55
Sure. If you are good with the power it needs, noise it makes and heat it generates.
FoamingToad
I have a ped server by Fujitsu that uses registered memory. It's quite well behaved, usually issues no more noise than a quiet desktop. Although if I'm up late, the chattering of the discs at 02:00 when the Plex cleanup job kicks in is a little annoying.
RealRaceRiotsAreAboutGettingBlueshelledInMarioKart
All I'm hearing is it'll run my Ark server and I can chuck my white noise machine and space heater all at the same time
Illinifan88
These companies are so fucking stupid. They have no idea how to monetize it other than getting other tech companies to pay them for it.
They are literally burning money in their incestuous tech bro circle jerk.
JimFromMarketing
It's an arm's race, one will survive. I'm betting Gemini
Don't kid yourself, AI is staying
SunBrolem
It is being bankrolled by the government. Do you actually think all these data centers are so we can make pictures of elephants that look like strawberries? They're for combing through the mountains of information the government has been gathering on its citizens since the patriot act was enacted.
randehman
Nah. The lesson we should have taken from the housing market crash wasn’t that the banks were stupid and couldn’t see the collapse coming… it was that they stood to make profit until the market collapsed and then they knew the government would bail them out. They aren’t idiots who can’t see the failure point, they’re corpse robbers who know how to make money steering us all into a failure. There’s no billionaire tech company morons, they’re not stupid. They’re just monsters with friends in DC.
Questionablysensible
Google are building out their data centres so they can provision the ~450 billion backlog they have for cloud services. That does include AI, but it also includes a.lot more than AI and they need to expand to meet actual demand rather than vapour (unlike, say, meta).
AtmaDarkwolf
The whole while it has amounted to a 'This is what WE COULD make' to sell shadow promises. To date, AI has yet to make ANYTHING, and has been a black hole eating money thrown at it, yet somehow, due to 'investors demanding returns' they feel the only solution is to THROW MORE MONEY AT IT. It CANNOT continue like this, but even KNOWING this, they will still throw YOUR money at it. All while also 'allowing' you to pay the bills for the water, and suffer the aftereffects.
spookyu
It's dumber than that, there's a genuine belief that it can be forced onto people. It started with the idea of replacing employees (which obviously backfired and continues to), but expanded to this idea that with enough time and money it can be so saturated into everything that society will be forced to rely on it. They vastly overestimated AIs ability to do *anything* and underestimated how tired people are of seeing this shit happen, but they're still pushing forward because "all in" I guess..
SavageDrums
They don't have any other ideas and they're addicted to profit, and they will kill every last human being to get more of it.
bigk001
"AI costs too much... layoffs to save money!" ...same old, same old...
RomanValkre
And some how it will be on the tax payer to bail them out when the music stops
do7rkb5n
And anyone whose 401k is invested in any tech stocks, which is almost all of us. At one point, iirc, 7 companies comprised 38% of the s&p500 and they were (are?) all AI companies, palantir, meta, open ai, etc. So we'll pay for it twice.
neo154
Just check out what is happening in Korea right now with Samsung and SK hynix. The same pattern will be happening in the US soon.
bigk001
*in America
onlymostofthetime
ah shit that is what's going to happen. I am going to be so pissed.
bigk001
oh please. you knew it would happen. ...now bend over.
INeedMoreGifMeMoreJustOneMore
The biggest problem they seem to face is that they all seem to think that eventually one of them will be the last one standing, and at that point they'll control the market for LLMs, and they'll be able to finally make consumers pay higher prices because there won't be any more competition to drive prices down.
Until that moment, they all think they can play bankruptcy-chicken.
Illinifan88
What average consumer currently pays for an LLM?
Like sure, I use ChatGPT occasionally for dumb stuff, but only because it's free. I would never pay for it.
The only people paying for it are businesses because they think they have to, even though they have no idea what to do with it.
There is no consumer base large enough to ever pay off what's being put into it.
INeedMoreGifMeMoreJustOneMore
I know, but that's where they think the market will go, see Altman saying stupid stuff like "it's gonna be a commodity like water from a tap!". They seem to think they can just force it on everyone, and then force them to pay for it.
huffnpuff72
This. They know that Google is king search, Facebook is king social, youtube is king of video etc. and there is little else to compete with each in their field. They want that for their own ai. Become king, squash competition.
Zar66
I work in tech I say this knowing when this goes south i will most likely need to find a new job in a different sector or a soup line "LET IT BURN" if it burns and crashes and becomes the molten slag we all know it will and should there is a hope in my generation we can recover. if we let stick around it will still crash and burn cause it adds nothing to the world it will only cost us more.
SavageDrums
I'm starting a side hustle for after the crash takes out my very poorly run IT company. Gotta get life after big tech started now.
DrBlackJack
Yeah, I get not wanting so many people to lose jobs, but the longer a bubble is artificially propped up, the more damage it'll cause when it goes bust. We've already propped this bubble up to the point it's going to make 2008 look like smooth sailing, do we really wanna try for beating the great depression? Because that's where we're headed if we keep investing more and more of our economy into this mess! Last I heard retirement funds are getting ready to invest into this mess, that'll end bad..
Malak224
I love how the people who have everything to lose and nothing to gain have absolutely zero choice in the matter.
ariania
I work in tech and this has enabled so much for us, we are making bank currently. We where making bank beforehand and im 100% sure we will even after it burst. Cyber Security baby!
dynamojoe
I'm also in tech. I'm about 8 years from retirement and I'm wondering if I'll make it or not in my current role. I think it'll be close.
Something1Said
I'm a lot longer from retirement, and I also think 8 years will be close. For your sake, I hope the bubble lasts 8 years and a day, internet stranger.
Zar66
I am sadly 30+ years from retirement "if i ever get to retire" i very much doubt i will.
WarThunderLeakedMySpecs
Retirement planning is easy. It’s getting your toe through the trigger guard that’s the hard part.
Recursiv3
https://media1.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPWE1NzM3M2U1Mjc1bzUwenB1N24zNnVyOWp0dmVjeDYwdGt2ZDM3cHVoNml4cmprNiZlcD12MV9naWZzX3NlYXJjaCZjdD1n/TD0NYrLpcnsTm/200w.webp